So Rhodri Morgan has been spending the Bank Holiday choosing his new Cabinet, rather than looking through holiday brochures with Julie. Let's speculate on who might be up and who might be down.
He's lost two of his previous top team, including Sue Essex, who has been such a towering presence over the last few years. (In passing, if the Labour Party has any gumption, Sue would not be allowed much time to look through holiday brochres either - and prevailed upon to head East down the M4 to spend some time on the red benches at Westminster).
I don't think Rhodri will drop anyone (except perhaps Brian Gibbons - of which more later). The two I think he'll bring in will be Leighton Andrews (through gritted teeth) and Sandy Mewies. I know Leighton has been a serial 'nat-basher' but he's smart enough to know that the post-election reality demands a big change of approach - if he has leadership ambition that is (does a one-legged duck etc.). His best position would be the 'culture' portfolio - but his nat-bashing probably rules that out. So education it will be. I think Rhodri will go for Sandy because she is so sound and sensible - and he needs someone from North Wales.
Carwyn Jones and Jane Davidson need a move. Rhodri might give Jane the 'Health' job - if she promised to be a bit less school-ma'amish. There will need to be some policy reversals on health and a new face will be needed - and Jane can state that black is white with great conviction. This might mean that Brian is dropped but I expect another portfolio for him. I hope he puts Carwyn Jones in the engine room of Finance. The budget could well be the trigger for the expected 'No Confidence' motion (if they last that long) and it would test Carwyn's skills to the limit. I would also give him the 'culture' brief. It's an odd combination. It's a case of 'Who Else?'.
And now to the policy area I care most about. There really is no obvious candidate. He may give the job to Sandy. A final thought is that Rhodri will not find a place for Huw Lewis - not if he wants to stay in office for more than a few weeks.