Is there any hope left for a Rhodri Morgan led Government in Cardiff Bay. Readers of this blog will know that I hope not. Following Plaid Cymru's decision to suspend talks with Labour, it looks all over. But could Lib Dem activists give Rhodri his dream? Would Rhodri take it if it was offered? Let me take this on a bit.
I've wanted to see the birth of the Rainbow Coalition for years, and since Plaid beat the Tories in the recent election, I've thought it an inevitable conclusion of the discussions that are now drawing to a close. Now I'm sure we'll be hearing from plenty of other commentators who thought it was inevitable all along as well. But its not quite all over. Lib Dem activists could scupper it all on Saturday.
All my contacts tell me that Plaid will agree the deal, no bother. Anything else would be self-destruct. But the Lib Dem activists are not so likely to be so compliant - especially when Peter Black is winding them up with his obvious distaste for the whole thing.
It is rather fun to speculate about what would happen if the Lib Dems were forced by their Saturday conference to sit on their hands in the Assembly vote next week. With Dafydd El presiding, a vote for Ieuan as First Minister would go down by one vote if Trish Law backs Labour, which I would expect her to do. What the devil happens then? I don't know. Would Rhodri be asked to form a minority government? Perhaps he'd refuse. Perhaps he'd prefer another election. Think about it.
He'd be able to say, "I told you so - vote Plaid and get Tory Ministers". He might think that the Gordon Brown bounce would help him next time. He might think that Labour's core vote would come back after giving them a kick up the backside three weeks ago. He may think that all the Plaid and Lib Dem shilly-shallying will make them look incompetent. Oh please don't let it be possible. No-one outside of Labour could stand it (very definitely including me before I have a comment suggesting otherwise). The one consolation is that the UK media would probably start covering Wales then!