Sunday, July 22, 2007

Don't Panic. Don't Panic.

No sooner do I get myself selected as a Tory candidate than I start to see headlines screaming "Conservative Meltdown". I was especially worried when I read commentators opining that "the Tories chose the wrong candidate" the day after I was selected. But it seems it was Tony Lit, our man in Ealing Southall rather than me who was in the frame. Some sort of relief. In any case, all this stuff about 'meltdown' is way over the top. Its wishful thinking by those who would like it to be so - like fellow blogger, Peter Black AM and Paul Flynn MP, both men clutching at silver linings.

But I do concede that it hasn't been the greatest few weeks for us. It began with the grammar schools 'row-over-nothing', followed by a very poor opinion poll for us in Wales (albeit commissioned by Plaid Cymru), followed by disappointing third places in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield, followed by two more polls today showing Labour ahead of us by 6%/7%. But for some reason, I don't feel depressed at all. Probably because I expected a Brown 'bounce' and a bit of internal turbulance (didn't except the Welsh poll though). Only thing that has rattled me a touch are the reports that some Tory MPs are trying to destabilise David Cameron's leadership. They must have been spending too much time in the Stranger's, or they are seriously lacking in the cerebral department.

Much more of this though, and Gordon Brown might be tempted by the idea of an October election. Fellow blogger, Nadine Dorries MP is already convinced the our new PM will go for it. But I don't buy it myself. He just doesn't have the courage. However, I do think he might be tempted if we don't succeed in changing the polls in our favour by next March. If I was putting any money on it, I would go for June, 2009, on the same date as the European Parliament Election. And I'd bet the farm on David Cameron still being our leader.

3 comments:

Montgomeryshire Witness said...

Glyn. I thought you knew politics better. I wouldn't go betting your farm on it just yet. What is it they say? Something about a week in politics...

Christopher Glamorgan said...

"bet the farm..." Mrs D is never going to let you loose in those London Casinos.

Glyn Davies said...

You are quite right. I am not a gambling man - not with money or farms anyway