Thursday, April 05, 2007

Predictable Poll

Poor Nick Speed. Trying desperately to give the impression on the Six-o-clock news that the NOP poll conducted for ITV told us anything we didn't know already. It was precisely the same as I've been predicted for months. Which is rather good news for the Conservatives.

We all know that Labour is doing badly and the suggested 25 seats is all they can reasonably expect. I think they will slip back some more yet - principally because of the outrageously undemocratic way that Brown is fixing his own 'coronation'. And we have all listened to Plaid Cymru's rather amusing predictions of 17 seats, which has been based on no evidence whatsoever. No-one has believed their rubbishing of the Tories. It has just made them look out of touch. The suggested 12 looks about right. And as for Mike German's talk of 12 seats - well, we've all had a good laugh about that. The only party leader who has been telling it straight is Nick Bourne. We know that we are doing reasonably well post-Cameron and 14 seats is about where we are at present. All of this looked predictable.

What's interesting is where we will go from here - and here are my predictions. I think Labour will slip back a touch more. Not so much because of their record but the sheer arrogance of Rhodri Morgan. Today, he has defied the electorate to vote him out, by talking of his retirement in the face of a bad result. He actually thinks his threat to retire will frighten people to vote Labour. Completely barking! And voters are beginning to smell the putrid stink associated with Labour's gerrymandering of the voting system by banning dual candidacy. There will be no justice unless Rhodri has gone in two months time. It will be the price he pays for trying to 'fix' the vote. I think Plaid might sneak on one - and I cannot see the Lib Dems improving on 7 seats while Mike, Lembit and Ming are leading the party down a blind alley. Which leaves us.

I've been saying for a while that anything less than 14 is a poor result for us and anything better than 14 is a great result. I know that things can change - but its looked like that for months. Well, I think we can do a bit better than that now. The Labour Party is in free fall and deservedly so. I've given up discussing what sort of coalition all this might lead to, until after the May 3rd poll. But I'm going down to the Black Lion in Berriew for supper tonight with a smile on my face. Things are going OK for the Welsh Conservatives.


Anonymous said...

Surely you don't want too many seats over 14 do you? You'd be out of the assembly, and the place would be poorer for it.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of coronations, when was Nick Bourne elected Tory Assembly group leader - and who did he defeat to win the coveted post? Who were the electorate? What was the result of the poll

Anonymous said...

I've never understood why Labour believe that Rhodri is an asset. Even in his own constituency he polled 4000 fewer votes in 2003 than in 1999.If Labour does go down to 25 seats and at least 3 of these could be list seats then no party can honourably prop up a coalition government led by Labour.

Glyn Davies AM said...

Anon, I want us to win as many seats as poss. In particular, I would like us to win Montgomeryshire, which in my opinion has been poorly represented, both at Westminster and Cardiff, since Alex Carlile retired in 1997.

Nick took over as Leader of the Conservative group in the Assembly at a very difficult time for us, following Rod Richards sudden resignation - when we all thought he was the only candidate to steady the ship. In general, I believe that any leader needs to win a crdible election, but in the case anon refers to, it was just not practical.

And if Labour drop to 25 seats, Rhodri Morgan is finished, whether resigns or not - and he knows it.

Why so many anonymous comments?

Anonymous said...

plaid are really pissed off with this poll

daran said...

I'll avoid anonymity, but forgive a little tangent on an issue no-one seems to have picked up on yet. This was the seeming collapse of the independent/other vote on the second ballot. In 2003 11.8% of the electorate cast their vote in this way, but last night's poll showed just 5% voting in that way. This is really quite surprising bearing in mind recent trends to "unconventional" voting, and also a fair bit of anecdotal evidence I've picked up.

The poll was obviously good news for your party Glyn (though some of the predictions just don't "feel" right). I sense that local swings and roundabouts are going to be far more important than any national poll. You evidently feel that way about Montgomeryshire.

Glyn Davies AM said...

Daran, I agree with your view on the 'others' polling - but Ukip has lost a lot of credibility since the Kilroy Silk nonsense made the Party look utterly ridiculous.

I also agree there could easily be unusual 'constituency' results - but the Additional Member PR system will mean that the total number of seats is much more predictable than individual results - so I think that my original post stands

Anonymous said...

and signing up the eqully colourful dai llewelyn woill not help ukip either

lads said...

"no party can honourably prop up a coalition led by Labour" - unfortunately there's always the Lib Dems. They'll do the proping up - after all "Wales needs Mike German as Deputy First Minister". That's MG's opinion and who are we to disagree?

Anonymous said...

ITV polls don't have a good track record (remember 1999) Remember:

1. They overestimate the Labour vote.

2. They underestimate the
Plaid vote.

The poll only really tells us two things:

1. Labour are in serious trouble

2. The Conservatives are doing well.

Of course, it is just impossible to guess how the assembly will look. I don't seriously expect the Tories to have more seats than Plaid, because our voters consistently come out in force (over 90%) in assembly elections. But at the end of the day, everything depends on the constituencies: how many are Labour going to lose because of the fall in their vote, and to whom?
I certainly won't be overly surprised to see the number of Tory constituency wins approaching (and perhaps equalling) Plaid's.

Glyn Davies AM said...

Sanddef, I almost agree with you - differing only that I think the Welsh Conservatives will be ahead of Plaid. I have not had the slightest doubt about this for at least a year.

Anonymous said...

I have not had the slightest doubt about this for at least a year.

Well, Guto Bebb's not so sure, though he seems to be coming round to your view.

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