Saturday, April 28, 2007

Just call me King Canute

First chance to blog for days. Big commitment to Conservative cause. Finally seem to be getting into election mode and not feeling left out of things. Made my first TV appearance of the campaign on Wales Decides this week - and now at least some people know that I'm actually a candidate ! Also surprised that a few people seem to have watched the programme. I thought that only a handful of political groupies bothered to stay up that late.

Enjoyed Wales Decides - even if it was a touch flat. Good panel and I was sitting between two 'forceful' women in Jane Davidson and Kirsty Williams. At least Helen Mary wasn't the Plaid rep. Not sure that I could have coped with three of them. Alun Ffred's more like me. Alun Cairns tells me that his mate Arsembly thought I was 'wittering on' a bit. Probably right. I did think I was a touch rude when I told Kirsty to stop butting in. Just out of practise I suppose.

Just my luck that my only TV slot of the campaign accompanied a 'disappointing' opinion poll. What could I say? "All to play for". "Only poll that counts is May 3rd". etc. etc. Call me King Canute but I simply do not believe Denis Balsom's conclusions about AM numbers. ITV Wales published a poll three weeks before which I think more accurately predicted the Conservative's likley position. I thought then that Plaid's position would improve and Labour's deteriorate - even if Plaid's by less than the second poll suggests. I just do not think that Labour will come back with 25 seats - 24 more likely and possibly lower.

I also find it impossible to believe that our vote will be lower than at the last election. I still believe that because of how the electoral system works, anything less than 14 seats will be a very disappointing result for us - just as anything more would be a great result. We shall see. Seems to me that the main dynamic in the campaign now is the Plaid/Labour swing - and it seems to be going Plaid's way. I was also a touch disappointed that Denis was quite firm that he didn't expect me to be re-elected. Good job I've been practising my sheep shearing skills of late - it will give me something to do over the next few months. But somehow, I just don't believe it.

So my personal opinion poll hasn't changed. I think the result will be

Welsh Conservatives - 14
Labour - 24 (possibly less)
Independents - 2
Lib Dems - 7
Plaid Cymru - 13 (possibly more)

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Politics - waste of time. Don't vote for them , you'll only encourage the fools.

Go for something worthy, Ferry Porsche, Christian Von Koenigsegg and Ferrari did.

Much more satisfying.

Ordovicius said...

Labour 24
Plaid 15
Tories 13
Lib Dems 6
Indies 2

Glyn Davies AM said...

Well sanddef, 13 would probably see me back ! There is not much between us - and your figures might make the 'rainbow coalition' more likely

Anonymous said...

With your predictions, I presume you have a view on who will win which seats? Care to explain which ones you think will changes hands?

And do you think, for example, that in losing constituency seats Labour might make gains on the lists, albeit having fewer seats overall?

Glyn Davies AM said...

It is not possible to predict seat results with much accuracy - but I believe the regional position is much more predictable - and assuming that Labour lose significant support, I believe my party should gain an extra seat in North Wales, South Wales West and South Wales South. I also think that Labour will lose more than 5 seats but will gain seats in the 'regional' election. But this is predicated on us improving our vote on 2003, of course.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the tip Glyn. Although I'm a Labour supporter I will definitely be voting Plaid to stop that idiot Chris Smart winning a seat in South Wales west. You think Dareen Millar has caused you trouble. You ain't seen nothing yet if the 'truancy officer' gates elected