Tuesday, November 27, 2007

What's going on.

The opinion polls are incredible. Conservatives on 40% and Labour on 27% -0 in tomorrow's Independent. Since I've been active in Conservative Party politics (12 years) we have not been in the lead for any significant period, let alone galloping off over the horizon. Its all a bit hard to believe. I keep on telling my political backers to calm down. You know the sort of thing. "Polls go up and down". "Only poll that counts". "Its where you are when the race ends that matters". But.........

The Northern Rock fiasco has left Gordon Brown and his Chancellor looking incompetent. The two wayward CDs where personal details of 25 million people went missing added to the impression. Then today we have this utterly bizarre story about dodgy donations to the Labour Party. Guido Fawkes is reporting on his blog that Harriet Harman and Hilary Benn took big donations from this shadowy developer, who wants to hide away, and that there might be a major planning application involved. This is bl***y dynamite. And I'm just listening to explanations on Newsnight from a Labour Party representative that millions of people will find unbelievable. And to cap it all, a Lib Dem MEP, Saffar Karim has defected to the Conservatives today. Usually, the pendulum swings back after things calm down. But.........

I really think that Gordon Brown will never win his own mandate. Too much damage has already been done. Perhaps he will carry on until 2010, but if he does, he will take the Labour Party into the wilderness for a very long time. I know it sounds incredible but another couple of big negative stories over the next three months and the Prime Minister may have to come up with some sort of medical condition to provide cover for a resignation for Labour to have any chance of recovering.


Anonymous said...

Easy Glyn. Have a look at the electoral statistics, the opposition are usually doing much better then this mid term to win a majority. This is as good as it gets for you and the pendulum will swing again, a grammar school selection policy here, a bit of eurosceptism there, splits over devolution. The true Tory colours will peep through again soon. Despite being your idealogical anti thesis still have a grudging hope you will beat Lembo. Just don't expect to be in government too.......

Anonymous said...

No offence Glyn but that would also be my preference. Wales needs you back but not your party. You have a lot more to offer Wales than your party ever will, preferably in a Welsh Parliament.

Pob hwyl.

Dylan Jones-Evans said...

Glyn, you are right to be cautious and optimistic at the same time, although many believe the 'tipping point' for this Government has already been reached and I cannot see how Brown and his government can pull back from this one.

They have the loser tag tattooed all over their foreheads, much in the same way the Major Government had in the run up to 1997. Indeed, it can get only worse in all probability.

However, it is fascinating to note that this would mean ten Conservative MPs in Westminster and, with a fair wind in Montgomery, you joining them.

The interesting conundrum for Welsh politics is where will this leave Plaid in 2011.

Will they want to be attached to a party that will have been thrashed at the General Election?

We live in interesting times.

Glyn Davies said...

activist - this pedulum swing is what you would expect, and it is the case that much of the Labour loss is not switching to us. I prefer the gradual increase that we are witnessing. We are in new territory, in that I never recall a Government losing support as dramatically as Labour has done recently. Interesting times.

Anon - if your historical antipathy to the Conservatives (Iassume this) were to be set aside, what exactly is it about today's Conservative Party that you don't care for?

D J-E - I too am interested in Plaid Cymru's reaction to all this - especially if it is reflected in the General Election result. I remain committed to searching for common ground between us and Plaid, with the ambition of a coalition in 2011. I remain desperately disappointed that the time was not quite right in 2007. But Plaid will have to live in the bed they have chosen for the next three years. i still think that it was a historic mistake on their part.

Aberavon and Neath Liberal Democrats said...

It's Sajjad Karim, and his defection appears to be more to do with ambition than any political conviction.

Take this, from his blog:
'Whilst Cameron attempts to paint a glossy image of a gay-friendly party
in the UK, he is also desperately trying to get into bed, at European
level, with Poland's openly homophobic 'Law and Justice' party. I just
hope the British public see Chameleon Cameron for who he really is!!!'

And will the traditional prejudices of the Conservative Party surface? There may be resentment as a second Muslim gains a high profile with the party.

No doubt certain promises have been made to Saj (he came only second on the LibDem list for NW England, and was no doubt looking for top spot). If these are not fulfilled, I predict he will be looking for a new home.

- Frank Little

Glyn Davies said...

frank - we say the same sort of thing in response to defections away! Those arriving are individuals of great principle and conviction -while those leaving are self interested opportunists. Your response fits the pattern precisely.

Anonymous said...

trouble for you glyn is that for you to win you want labour to poll well at the expense fo the liberals.