Friday, June 27, 2008

Labour trounces Bananaman Owen.

This is just about the only positive 'spin' that Labour can put on it. At least they did manage to beat Bananaman Owen, even if it was a damn close run thing. What a disaster for the Labour Party was yesterday's Henley By-election. And even more of a disaster for Gordon Brown on the first anniversary of his assuming the Premiership. The obvious question. Are Labour really going to carry on standing by this man, as the voters heap such humiliating judgements on his leadership?

Tories win in Henley is no big deal, but its worth looking at the figures. To a large extent, the Conservative vote is a side issue, though it was a plus that it went up 3.46% to 57%. The Lib Dem vote was a bit more significant, in that it hardly advanced at all (1.84%) - which must have come as a huge disappointment to Stephen Kearney and Nick Clegg, bearing in mind the Labour meltdown. Labour voters are simply not switching to the Lib Dems any more.

But third up were the Greens, and then the BNP, which is itself a story. Labour fell over 11% to just 3% of the vote. Now no-one would pretend that Labour were in with a shout of winning, but this result is a disaster on an epic scale. Its even worse than the opinion poll story, and that is a 'Novel from Hell' at the moment. Of course its possible that Gordon Brown can turn the whole thing around, but we've now had over six months of a steadily deteriorating position for Labour. I really do think there must be a chance that if things don't improve by the conference season, there will begin a groundswell of sympathy for a change of captain - and a General Election next June.

10 comments:

Dr. Christopher Wood said...

'Henley' - "Know what you mean guv, *nudge nudge* - say no more".

Anonymous said...

All good for winning Mont in the general election. Do check out Heledd Fychan's post about Lembit Opik on her blog today. Important, not because, once again he looks a complete fool, but it has implications for the people of Montgomeryshire. I don't feel the Tories are doing enough locally to hilight just why he has to go at the next election. Reading Hello in parliament during Welsh Affairs is pretty pathetic. joining a debate and talking utter rubbish, evfen more so. This is now in Hansard and people ought to be made aware of wha he's doing. He pops in half way through a debate in order to record his attendance,speaks in an ill informed way, so it's recorded that he spoke, and then disappears. It's vital the voters have this knowlege. He's a con.

Glyn Davies said...

anon - what is Heledd's blog address? I'm being told that the EDM process and inappropriate interventions are being increasingly used to generate media opportunities. Other MPs are becoming ever more critical of this demeaning of Parliament. Only repeating what I'm told, so have no opinion on this myself.

Dr. Christopher Wood said...

http://heleddfychan.blogspot.com/

Normal Mouth said...

What a disaster for the Labour Party was yesterday's Henley By-election

Oh yeah. it was a seat they should have expected to win...

Glyn Davies said...

Christopher - thanks.

NM - The post acknowledged that the Tory win was no big deal. Are you trying to make out that a collapse in the Labour vote by almost 12% to 3.46%, and falling behind the Greens and the BNP is not an electoral disaster. Better book an appointment to check out the blinkers. Jonathon Partridge in Welshpool is my optrometist.

Normal Mouth said...

Are you trying to make out that a collapse in the Labour vote by almost 12% to 3.46%, and falling behind the Greens and the BNP is not an electoral disaster.

Yes. In the first instance because disasters mean bad things and this means nothing. That's because in the second instance Labour got squeezed, which is what happens to the third placed party in by elections.

I know you have a party line to spin, but I'd forget the blinkers and check the spectacles prescription if I were you. Your sense of perspective appears to be somewhat off.

Glyn Davies said...

NM - Not sure its happened before, but this time I totally disagree with your analysis.

Dr. Christopher Wood said...

Well - looks like a Labour MP (Glasgow East MP David Marshall) is quitting Parliament thereby invoking a by-election in a constituency that has strongly voted Labour. So we will get another snap-shot of how nu-Labour stands (or otherwise) with the electorate!

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