Thursday, August 02, 2007

Strategy to Win?

Be a damn nuisance if Brown goes for an election on 25th October - but I reckon its no more than a 10/1 shot. Decided on my strategy to tackle the General Election today, and I do not need the PM going to the country until May 2008 at the earliest. Key stratagem is to contact directly every voter in Montgomeryshire over the next 9 months, and repeat as much of the exercise as possible during the campaign. Campaign starts next Wednesday in Guilsfield, followed by presence at local show the next day. And then repeat the exercise on a regular basis throughout the constituency. Sounds ever so easy!

Also decided on some policy issues today - in part as a result of an essay by an old friend of mine, Delwyn Williams in today's Western Mail. Delwyn, who was Tory MP for Montgomeryshire 1979-1983, says that he is going to stand in Montgomeryshire as an 'Independent' - basically on a 'Scrap the Assembly' ticket. There will be no hedging of bets on my part. I can see no future for the Tories in Wales without a positive attitude towards strengthening the Assembly - so I am for law making powers in currently devolved areas. Might not be a vote winner - but its what I believe.

Another clear policy statement will have to be made as a result of the decision by Bruce Lawson to stand for Ukip in Montgomeryshire. Again, Bruce is an OK locally based man, but he too seems to want to undermine my campaign as his main objective. I do describe myself as a Eurosceptic and I do call for a referendum on the EU reform treaty - but I am not for pulling out of the European Union. Its just not serious politics. Its like Plaid Cymru calling for an Independent Wales.

Politics is a funny old business. Two local candidates, whom I would consider to be well to the right of me (in a general sort of way) are committed to ensuring an easy ride for the Liberal Democrats, with whom both fundamentally disagree. But both will liven things up a bit, even if they will make my task that much more difficult. At least the campaign should be enjoyable - Delwyn is a likable character. But I do need a minimum of 9 months before it starts.


Daran said...

A very frank piece as ever Glyn.

UKIP's entry into any electoral field is not good news for Conservative chances, as witness the the last Assembly election. No UKIP candidates in Preseli or Carmarthen West undoubtedly helped Conservative wins there as much as they frustrated them in Montgomeryshire, Delyn, Gower and the Vale of Glamorgan. In each of those 4 seats I think the UKIP vote was bigger than the majority over the Conservatives.

I know it's not an absolute rule (with Con gains in Clwyd West and Cardiff North despite UKIP), but I think there still remains a correlation.

I accept it isn't absolute though, but surely no-one can deny the absence of a UKIP candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan (with the 2000 votes they took) would have given the seat to the Conservatives? After all, the Labour majority is less than 100. Further, I'd also speculate that if UKIP had run in Carm W then the Conservatives would have been unlikely to win it by about 100 votes as they did (in general UKIP takes 1000+ votes in the Assembly seats it contests). No disrespect to Angela of course, but I have a feeling if UKIP had run there then either Labour or Plaid would have won the seat and you'd still be in the Assembly. Not that you really want to hear that, I suppose, and I guess the impact of UKIP is already something which has exercised your mind.

I didn't mean this post to be as negative as it sounds, honestly!

Glyn Davies said...

daran - when one feels pain, one knows where it came from. You don't need to tell me. When I read about Adam Price talking about realigning the left, I despair to see the centre/right focussing on each other rather our philosophical oppposites - loosely speaking.

And now Guilsfield Show has been cancelled - so its on to Llanfyllin Show on Saturday instead.

alanindyfed said...

Letter to the Western Mail :
It was with a sense of growing disbelief that I read the recent article by Delwyn Williams, Conservative MP for Montgomery in the "Western Mail " (Thursday 2nd August). First, he makes a scathing attack on the National Assembly and then goes on to denigrate David Cameron, his party leader. He states that the referendum on the establishment of the Assembly was won only by a small margin (0.6%) and that in most democracies the requirement is for two thirds or three quarters of the vote. This assertion strikes me as one of sour grapes on his part. He cannot accept that the Assembly is in place or that it has been a success. True, the majority vote was minute, but the Assembly is well and truly functioning. Delwyn Williams espouses the politics of yesterday, a negative and prejudicial view which has no place in modern Wales and the era of consensus politics. His fellow MPs at Westminster , both Labour and Conservative, with their retrogressive stance on the politics of Wales , are united in their efforts to undermine the Assembly and the attempts by those of sense and vision to create a better future (and I include both Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones in these remarks).

Mr Willams speaks of ‘lazy blacks’, and this will not endear him to the immigrant population, but then again they may be few and far between in the genteel pastures of Montgomery . One can only hope that the people of Montgomery will have more sense and loyalty than to vote for Mr Williams, particularly as he has now displayed his disloyalty on three counts : to Wales , to the Assembly and towards his party leader, however misguided and ineffective David Cameron may be. The people of Wales do not wish to be reminded by these tired old men of worn-out past century politics, but seek a new and better future for Wales . We should move on, grasp the opportunities, and make a difference.