This blog has been predicting an early challenge to Gordon Brown's leadership of the Labour Party, and his position as Prime Minister - not with certainty, but as a better than even chance. This is why we in Montgomeryshire are gearing up for a General Election next June, as a new leader goes for damage limitation. I just cannot believe that Labour MPs will walk mindlessly over the cliff behind the clearly out-of-his-depth Gordon Brown. A new Prime Minister will not want to wait until June 2010, when the blame for defeat would have been inherited from Mr Brown. I note that the BBC's political experts disagree. They all think the Prime Minister is safe. I think they are too close to the trees to see the wider landscape.
Well, today a Government whip called for a leadership contest - a synonym for the early removal from office of the Prime Minister. BBC covers it here. Its probably the first time that most of us have heard of Siobhain McDonagh, which suggests that she is not one of the 'usual suspects'. Inevitably, she was promptly fired. The question that is hanging in the air is to what extent is this is part of a destabilisation campaign. To this observer, it does not look like an isolated act. She's a whip, and they know a bit about tearoom chatter. I expect another grenade to be lobbed into the Brown Bunker tomorrow from behind another unexpected bush.
As expected, the Brown 'Character Rubbishing And Pulverisation' unit has swung into action - but have to observe that CRAP's spokesperson on tonight's news was even less well known than Ms McDonagh. I'm sorry that I've arranged a few days holiday in Spain during the Labour Party Conference. It promises to be quite a lively affair
12 comments:
I expect another grenade to be lobbed into the Brown Bunker tomorrow from behind another unexpected bush.
Top prediction Glyn, the grenade has the name of Joan Ryan!
Agreed. Brown will be out be the end of the year, and there will be a GE sometime in 2009. Everyone I speak to thinks otherwise, but the Labour Party is descending into open civil war, and the economy is tanking rapidly. There is a lot of complacency around.
And this doesn't even factor in the upcoming Winter of Discontent...
This is all good knock about fun Glyn but this does not bring you any nearer to defeating Lembit now does it?
Brown's demise does not translate into votes for you? Agreed?
Its goodbye time for Broon
The Prime Minister's position is deteriorating - but no decisive blow has yet been struck. Its not goodbye yet. There will be a huge collective effort at yet another relaunch next weekend, but its not looking good - and then there's the By-election to come.
Janice - Its may be a subtle difference, but my aim is to develop a strong Conservative team to work for the people of Montgomeryshire, at Powys Council, Assembly and Westminster levels - rather than beating anyone. There is now a good team of us who work well and effectively together. It may be that local media coverage is dominated by publicity for the local MP, but I suspect a lot of people put commitment to Montgomeryshire ahead of chasing headlines. So we shall see.
Thank you for that answer Glyn. I am tad unclear still, are you saying you don't think you will beat the sitting MP?
If you do win, do you think Labour's current woes will be a contributary factor in your victory?
Janice - whenever anyone asks me directly, I respond by saying that I believe we are in with a chance of winning the Montgomeryshire seat.
If I were to win, I hope it would be something to do with our record of public service as a 'team' in Montgomeryshire. However, I do think that Labour's failings would have also played a part as well.
For me to be elected in Montgomeryshire, everything has to go well for us - and at the moment they seem to be doing just that.
I wonder when Janice Hooper was last in Newtown or Welshpool or Machynlleth. Does she realise what is going on in Mont? Even traditional hardcore Liberals are refusing to vote for their comedy MP. Lembit Opik is regarded as a laughing stock, his campaigning for that idiotic scooter thing regarded as so very typical of the lost causes he espuses. We in Mont find him deeply embarrassing, exacerbated by the fact that he has become a part-time MP. His addiction to celebrity and grabbing the headlines is absurd. He has no credibility left as a politician. Even his own party elders are hoping he won't get the presidency of the Lib Dems. Perhaps Janice should visit the constituency and find out for herself that Montgomeryshire will go blue in the next election. No two ways about it
Thanks again Glyn. At least you give answers. I can understand why you are being reticent and not taking voters for granted, however, when Dilwyn delivered Montgomeryshire for us, there was REAL confidence about the campaign - we were left in doubt that if the landslide came, the Lib Dems would be blown away (and they were!).
I am not complaining, I think you are fighting a good campaign, its just that you are not driving home the point made so eloquently by Anon 4:56.
I think the time has come to take off the kid gloves, show some leadership locally, show the people there is an alternative. Its very lacklustre, folkesy and gentlemanly. People are getting bored with it. The feeling is, the current MP will win and the person who would give us hope (you) will lose the election.
Come on Glyn - the prospect of you failing is awful, infact, you will never have a chance again and your political life will be over!
So come on - go for it Mr Davies!
Throw down that gaunlet this week - tell it how it is!
(P.S. I was Newtown today actually!)
have you looked at Lib Dem Voice lately and its survey of memebers opinions of their shadow cabinet. lembit opik is last out of the twenty five with a rating of -35.4%. 60 % of liberal democrats think hes ineffective. its clear that the lib dems think hes completely useless. you should make something of this because the local paper would never run thsi story. montgomeryshire has got the worst mp in britain.
Totally agree with Ms Hooper. Your campaign is way too "nice". You don't seem to be making the most of LO's own goals, and boy, are there lots of those. This is a fight and yet locally there is no sense of a battle taking place. You seem to go out of your way to be nice about him. Rest assured, the Lib Dems are not being kind about you, Glyn! It's a dog eat dog world as far as they are concerned and they will employ every trick in the book to put you down. You have to have a strategy, you have to tackle his idiocies (his behaviour after all should be a god-send to you )and draw attention to them. Make people locally aware of the fact a fair few of the usual donors and party activists are no longer supporting him, point out that he has lifestyle problems, make people aware of his huge gaffs in parliament, from offering the other Cheeky Girl up to MPs for a date, to joining debates half way through, and displaying total ignorance, in order to get his name down as a speaker in Hansard. Above all, hammer home to the people of Montgomeryshire that he they gain nothing by being represented by a joker. You have to tell them that they deserve better. You have to be strong. That strength and forcefulness is not coming through to the people of Mid Wales. Be bold. This is THE chance to get rid of an unworthy representative. Please don't let us down!
Janice and anon 2 - You both make a valid point about strategy that has been made by others, particularly when I was first adopted. Not so much now. I'll do a post on this subject tonight.
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