Improving Forecast in Montgomeryshire.

I recall Iain Dale discussing prospects for the next General Election with some London based psephologist last year. When Iain suggested that Montgomeryshire could be an interesting contest, the London 'voice' dismissed the idea witheringly. Well, I do need a 11.4% swing to take the seat from the Lib Dems, the computer informs that Montgomeryshire is around 15th on our 'target seat' list in Wales, and the current MP is just about the best known Lib Dem MP in the UK. So I shall forgive him his 'detached' ignorance.

Denis Balsom is an entirely different kettle of fish. He actually knows something about Wales - and knows where Montgomeryshire is. This helps. In fact Denis is the best psephologist that we have in Wales. He was just about the only person who predicted that I would lose my position on the National Assembly last year. So let's see what he predicts for the next General Election in a report commissioned by the Institute of Welsh Affairs, covered in yesterday's Western Mail. It looks as if my personal weather outlook is rather promising.

What's interesting is that Denis is predicting that Montgomeryshire will fall to the Conservatives, even if there is no meltdown of the Labour vote. In this 'no-meltdown' scenario, he sees the Conservatives as winning perhaps 9 seats in Wales - including Montgomeryshire. In a 'meltdown' situation, Denis thinks that the Conservatives could win a lot more. Of course this doesn't mean that I should start looking for somewhere in London to lay down my tired head after each day's toil - but it certainly does put a spring in the step of all those supporters who are part of our local 'team'.