Tomorrow, I'll be telephoning my constituency chairman to inform him of my opinion that we should prepare for a General Election in Feb/March. I really do think that Gordon Brown will not survive to the end of the year. There will be a final effort to rally the Labour Party behind the Prime Minister at Labour's Conference next week - and his big speech will be hailed a success. But it will make no difference.
Its not the dozen or so MPs who have asked him to go. And it would not matter if this figure rose to 30. Its not that one Minister has resigned. And it would make no difference if that figure rose to 3/4. But Cabinet members. That's different - especially if its anyone who's spoken of as a possible replacement. Step forward James Parnell, who has tonight made supportive comments about the rebels (according to Newsnight). This is incendiary (assuming its true). Hutton didn't matter. But other Cabinet members who fancy the top job cannot allow Parnell to steal a march on them.
And if the Prime Minister is forced out, what will the new man or woman do. Well lets think about it. What's the best way to make sure Gordon Brown gets the blame for any defeat. If a defeat comes in Feb/March, the blame will land on Gordon Brown's doorstep, and the new leader gets to fight another day. If its held in June 2010, no-one will remember Gordon Brown, an dthe new leader will cop the blame. And a decision to go in Feb/March would take control of the agenda, and score high marks for boldness. I'm not saying its probable yet, but its a lot more probable tonight than it was this morning, and it's the way the big stone is rolling. I think quite a few association chairs will be having telephone calls tomorrow.
6 comments:
Just a few months before the Euro elections? I don't think so.
Or James Purnell.
I think your analysis has a probabily factor about it. Principally for the reasons stated.
Additionally Brown's argument to his cabinet members "The economy will turn around mid 2009 giving us a year to recoup our reputation for economic management" now holds no water.
We are in for a decade of slower growth as banks return to banking.
That is an intrigueing thought. Good bye Gordon, Good bye Lembit, Hello Bright Blue Future! But do the Tories want an election that soon, and still cop some economic downturn during their watch?
I have to agree with you, though I have been favouring April or May 09. Can't see it being 2010 now.. Interesting times ahead!
It doesn't matter who's at the top. It's rapidly going to become a matter of minimising the damage. We're in the early stages of a much more serious recession than the early 1990s, and as Bill Clinton said "It's the economy, stupid".
Call a general election next spring and suffer a disatrous defeat, or wait till 2010 and suffer complete annihilation.
That's Labour's choice.
Frank - Truth is that the European elections are not seen as sufficiently significant to infuence this issue.
Savonarola - And it was not even a deliberate mistake! Agreed about the long term nature of the changes we've seen. We've never seen anything like this before.
Roman - I've heard many say the same thing. But I do think that public's expectations have been significantly downgrade over the last week or so. People know that its going to be tough, whoever's in charge.
Heledd - Read your rather optimistic comments on Plaid's prospects. Can't agree, especialy about Aberconwy. I feel very confident about Guto.
Draig - Thats how it looks - at the moment. But its because we all know things can change that we Conservatives must avoid becoming complacent. There is still a long long way to go.
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