Sunday, June 07, 2009

Predictions.

Its always a risk to predict an election result before the votes are counted. I know that I will suffer unmerciful mockery if we fall short of what I hope for. Must warn you that I have a history of being unjustifiably optimistic. But risk can be fun - as long as its treated as a bit of fun. In Montgomeryshire I predict that tonight's results will be;

The Conservatives will win - perhaps by a 1,000 votes.
That the Lib Dems will hold off a real challenge from UKIP.
That Plaid Cymru will poll quite well.
That Labour will have a disaster.

Will post on what I think it all means for Montgomeryshire when we have the results in.

4 comments:

Dewi Harries said...

Optimistic yeah right - Tories will win Montgomery by at least 2000 and you know it !

To one part flour said...

"The Test" (not the cricket version) as everyone knows will come after Labour are swept out of 10 Downing Street.

The EU/USA is facing fundamental changes - the Far East is gaining financial and political power on the world scene. It won't be too long before China becomes far more assertive.

The EU and now the USA seems to be giving up on doing anything serious to stop Iran getting nuke weapons and the ICBMs to deliver them. We are seeing North Korea doing just that and the UN won't stop them, and the EU and the USA are essentially giving North Korea a free pass. If North Korea is not stopped, Iran will soon follow suit, then Saudi Arabia (and Japan too, since Japan is threatened by North Korea; Saudi feels threatened by Iran). Once Iran has nuclear weapons it seems inevitable that Syria and then Hezbollah will have access to them. We are looking at nuclear annihilation in the ME, with a few heading for the EU and USA. If the EU continues to object to Poland having ICBM interceptors then the UK, France and Germany will be very vulnerable to nuclear attack from Iran and/or its proxies.

The UK government gave up the nuclear free fall bomb some years ago, and is now thinking of giving up Trident on grounds of cost. Funny because the free-fall bomb is a lot cheaper than Trident (likewise nuclear tipped air launched cruise missiles). The RAF is now devoid of wings to drop free-fall bombs. Once Trident is gone and if the anti-ICBM missiles in Poland are stripped out, the entire EU will have is France to rely on as an independent nuclear armed power.

The UK is facing a calamity of very high order on the manufacturing front. Oblivious to the need to develop cutting edge technology to compete with China and India, the UK will increasingly turn into a consumer society relying on international tourism and services rather than manufacturing. Recent education reports strongly indicate that the UK is not training scientists and engineers anywhere near the level and quality required to compete with India's thousands upon thousands of PhDs - India is going to be a superpower well beyond UK capability, which is kind of funny as many Brits still think we should send charity money to India when in fact India is already a greater nuclear power, has made tremendous progress in high-tech and space research (on information and belief India just launched a spy satellite for Israel to spy on Iran).

There lies a clue: the west needs a strong vibrant India as a counter weight to China and the Middle East, and as a check on fundamentalism brewing in Pakistan.

Whoever rules the next Parliament needs to put the UK back on the track of innovation and engineering. Otherwise the UK will increasingly be seen as an increasingly backward nation, both in reality and in the way it looks backwards instead of forwards.

Wales, if managed properly, would do better as an independent free nation, but sadly the Welsh Assembly has proved incapable of supporting the creation of a viable high tech Welsh economy. Consequently the Welsh economy is going to be tied too much to London even though the WAG has the devolved powers over its economic development and Welsh universities, but seems incapable of harnessing either for the betterment of Welsh families.

Wales is on a downward spiral absent sensible policies coming out of the WAG.

Scotland is a different case, it has greater capabilities and can sustain progress on multiple fronts, but even the Scottish Parliament needs to address structural weaknesses present in its economy. Scotland has fantastic universities; it needs to nurse them into economic power houses for the Scottish people.

I have spent several years in Scotland's #1 commercial city and been part of the Scottish university system. It has tremendous potential to build a vibrant Scottish economy, but time is running out for Scotland too given the emergence of new superpowers like India.

We need to innovate and commercialize our innovations to survive.

Frank H Little said...

UKIP has done remarkably well in Neath and in Aberavon. I made them less than fifty behind your party in both constituencies. And they do better outside industrial Wales. That suggests UKIP will do better than the Conservatives country-wide.

Liberal Democrats have performed below your expectations here, but at least we finished ahead of BNP, who have not done as well aa they were boasting they would.

Well, we shall all know for certain shortly.

Glyn Davies said...

Dewi - we won by 1250, but it was UKIP in 2nd place. The Lib Dems were another 200 further back.

Frank - Ukip have done well in Montgomeryshire as well - pushing the Lib Dems down into third place. I'm told we have secured more votes that Labour in Wales - last time was in 1865! I still do not know who has won 4th seat.