Friday, July 25, 2008

Reflections on Glasgow East.

It was a bad night for Labour, in particular Gordon Brown. Losing Glasgow East to the Scottish National Party was a spectacular defeat. I cannot believe that Labour MPs will not be busy on their mobiles over the next few weeks, and they will not be discussing how to ditch Gordon Brown. The Prime Minister himself will hope that the summer will allow his problems to recede, but I no longer believe that they will. I'm not sure what I want to see happen. On one hand, I would like to see a quick change of Prime Minister, and the early General Election that would mean. On the other hand, if Gordon struggles on until June 2010, history shows that Labour will be annihilated and David Cameron will probably have a bigger majority.

It was a great night for the Scottish National Party, in particular Alex Salmond. He has used his position as First Minister of Scotland to devastating effect. I will return to this issue, and its relevance to Wales in a separate post.

It was a reasonable result for the Conservatives, even though we were a distant third - but it was third, which is better than a lot of commentators were predicting. There remains a huge challenge for the Conservatives in Scotland, but David Cameron's willingness to put himself about in constituencies like Glasgow East shows that we are serious about being an all UK Party.

Another very bad result for the Liberal Democrats. Yesterday, fellow blogger Peter Black posted that he thought that the Lib Dems were going to make a fight of it. They lost their deposit, with a whimper. Nick Clegg looks to have been a very bad choice.

I must say that Labour spokespersons have been totally unconvincing today - and personally, I've not seen any of the potential leadership candidates making any public comment. Sniff of cordite, and under the desk they go - only to emerge when others have done the dirty work. It really does look as if there is change in the air. Better hang an to our hats in the autumn I think.


Dr. Christopher Wood said...

I’m not familiar with Labour’s rules on challenging Gordon Brown – but I just can’t see Gordon Brown staying on as PM into 2009. Somebody will throw his/her challenge in, probably lose, but then the gates will open and every Labour pooch and his minister will throw in their tie, shoes, laces, belts, etc. into the election for PM bowl and GB will be gone – of course this is David Cameron’s worst nightmare, that GB will go without a national election. Maybe GB will threaten his own party ‘faithful’ with that idea of calling an election. Maybe this is GB’s only ‘ace’ card left – I would say No. 2 Diamonds (since it is red and about the lowest value card in the pack).

alanindyfed said...

GB represents GB. There is little to distinguish between them. GB has virtually renounced Scotland and embraced GB. This is reminiscent of necrophilia. GB will go down with GB and the real nations will come into their own.
GB is an outdated concept and GB an outworn PM of GB. We should call for new parliaments with identical law-making powers for the nations, including England, which will also withdraw from GB.
It's only a matter of time....