Saturday, July 12, 2008

How bad is it for Labour?

Just catching up on Friday's papers. Couldn't let John Kamfner's column pass without comment. Aan of the left wondering whether the Labour Party will "be wiped off the map" at the next General Election. I don't think many Labour Party activists really believe this (yet), but it's obviously being talked about. If Labour lose the Glasgow East by-election in 12 days time, a lot more people will be contemplating wipeout.

Tonight's ICM poll suggest that Labour will hold Glasgow East, and allow Gordon Brown more time to reconnect Labour with the people - or make things worse. The by-election may make it more likely that the General Election will be delayed until the last possible date in early summer, 2010. This is not necessarily good news for Labour, in that history tells us that the Prime Ministers who hang on to the last minute usually perform very badly indeed. Even more importantly, when we approach next June, all parties will have the same firm timetable to plan to. The pereiod up to the conference season is going to be very interesting for we politicos.

3 comments:

Frank H Little said...

I predict a good showing for the Scottish Socialist. What are the odds, and where can I put a few bob on her?

Dr. Christopher Wood said...

Glasgow is a bit of a puzzle to the Conservatives. Many of its people tend to regard themselves as pretty remote and forgotten by "London". Having lived there some years and having spent some time living in Govan, albeit proximate to the West End of Glasgow, it will be a hard place for the Conservatives to 'show well in”. Which means Gordon Brown can expect a win there, but with a reduced majority.

The bottom line? Gordon Brown can survive Glasgow East, but can't rely on Glasgow East to keep him in power.

Should Labour loose Glasgow East - then this would be the epitome of a ‘total disaster’ for Labour, not likely to happen, but if it does happen GB will not be leading Labour into the next election. No sireee.

Glyn Davies said...

I agree with both of you here.