Monday, December 21, 2009

The Lib Dems must be worried.

No organisation is doing more damage to the environment than the Liberal Democrats in Montgomeryshire. Over the last few weeks, they must have used the equivalent of an Amazonian forest to produce all the paper they are showering onto the heads of Montgomeryshire voters. Yet another envelope, full of various self extolling leaflets from Montgomeryshire's MP has been arriving on our doormats today. Its all shamelessly boastful stuff. My secretary, and several party members were recipients - all being asked for a donation of £50! At least this folder of leaflets has not been paid for by the taxpayer, which is more than can be said for the last two publications I was given copies of. Today's pack even had a glossy leaflet from Nick Clegg in it. Anyone would think they were concerned about losing the seat!

Today's leaflet includes one of those bar charts that the Lib Dems are famous for. The message is that "its only the Lib Dems who can defeat the Conservatives". What it said to me was that "its only the Conservatives who can defeat the current Lib Dem MP!". The other message is that its a waste of time voting either Plaid Cymru or Labour, because it will let in the Conservatives. Again, what this says to me is that by voting for Plaid, Labour or Ukip, you help the current Lib Dem keep the seat. I suppose all the other parties could say something similar as well. The 'trend' for both Plaid and Ukip are upwards as well. Anyway, in the interests of accuracy, I'll let you know what the true position is.

2005 General Election - Lib Dems (15,419), Conservatives (8,246), Labour (3,453), Plaid (2,078), Ukip (900).

2007 Assembly Election

Constituency vote - Lib Dem (8704), Conservative (6725), Plaid (3076), Ukip (2251), Labour (1544).

Interesting to note - National Assembly elections comprise two votes, the 'constituency' vote, and the 'regional' vote - which was broken down by constituency. In Montgomeryshire, our campaign was based on asking the people to use their second vote to support me. (I was a list candidate). I cannot track down the precise results, but in Montgomeryshire the two leading positions were Conservative (approx 9,000), Lib Dem (approx 7,000).

2008 Council Election - No precise figures but in Montgomeryshire the Conservatives won 6 seats, not having held any before, ever. The Lib Dems won just two seats.

2009 Euro Election - Though the constituency was Wales, the votes cast were counted in each parliamentary constituency, The results were Conservative (approx 4,300), Ukip (approx 2,800), Lib Dem (approx 2,700).

2010 - Who knows? But I do think a look at what has happened over the last 5 years blows a very big hole in the message that the local Lib Dem MP is trying to push. I accept that there is normally a larger turnout in General Elections, which will have an impact, but I think we're justified in thinking we have a decent chance of winning.

Its me just trying to help again.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Glyn, please don't stoop to the same level as the LibDems. You know very well that if someone who voted LibDem last time, and decides to vote Plaid this time, that is one less vote for the LibDems. If, your logic holds true, then you are encouraging for example, Labour voters to vote LibDem to help prevent a Tory government. I have admired your approach as a candidate for the general election, tackling the issues involved. You need not mimic the LibDems in their desperation to hold onto the seat.

Valleys Mam said...

Vote Lib Dems and get a self seeking publicity junkie
Vote Tory and get a principled ,hard working man who understands teh needs of a rural area - no competition really is there.
And no I am not Tory mam before my snert starts

cycande said...

… in part y I think the Lib-Dems are not just the 'third party', but are also the 'turd party'.

Their level of hypocrisy knows no bounds. "Boundary conditions": null points; empty set.

I will never forget what they did to Peter Tatchell; the tactics used by Simon Hughes to in the Bermondsey by-election - the use of leaflets to undermine Tatchell based on his sexulality - total hypocrisy.

I admire Peter Tatchell, a very brave soul, determined man, full of courage. I would say a delightful young man, but he’s older than me and I’m getting on a bit now!

Glyn Davies said...

Anon - You know how to cut a man to the quick. I fully accept the points you make about Plaid success, and have discussed it (in an un-serious way) with Heledd. As for Labour, we all depair. When I was first voting, Labour were contesting second place with the Conservatives, but in 1983, Labour supporters voted tactically 'to get the Tory out'. They don't seem to have gone back. Mt post said that all parties can put a rosy gloss on the figures (except Labour, who do not seem to be trying) - and it was no more than a factual post anyway. Readers can judge for themselves.

VM - What's a snert? The wall before us is 100 years of tradition - except 1979-83. Even when the Liberals were down to about 6 seats, Montg. was one of them - so its a big challenge.

cycande - I believe that Peter Tatchell has just withdrawn as a General Election candidate, becaus ehe has not fully recovered from being knocked about on protest marches.

frankie said...

Having never voted Tory in my life, you will be getting mine and my other half's vote next G.E. This is because I guess I'm really voting for the man, not so much the party. I have to come clean here, and say, if the LibDem's had deselected Lembit Opik (who is a total disgrace and embarrassment) for someone I could respect, I would have voted for them again. Having said that - I do think you will be a very good MP for Montgomeryshire. So I wish you the very best of luck next spring.

Anonymous said...

The Lib Dems must be even more worried having read page 13 0f the Daily Mail today! Lembit Opik AND his agent staying at his flat, whilst he lived elsewhere but still claimed the allowance. It stinks. This on top of the electricians incident. The man is surely now toast. Even the traditional Liberal voters inMid Wales must now see through him and realise it's time to give up on him, his agent and the party

You KNow who said...

Glyn,

Don't kid yourself, the tax payer HAS funded this deluge. A look at OPik's use of the communications allowance shows a payment of £7.5k to the local party. That this is used to fund routine stuff that they would do anyway, allows money to be diverted to party promotional stuff hostile to their opponents.

The overall funding received by the LIb-Dem office from BOTH the Assembly and Westminster is a disgrace. I cannot believe it was allowed to happen.

You know me as well said...

Glyn,

His foot soldiers may be busy trudging through the snow but our MP is strangely silent.

No Tweets from him since he returned since the one sent on his return from the cruise.

Strange silence, maybe his helpers didn't like his tweet exhorting them to greater effort whislt he was basking in the sunshine on a pid for cruise.

Glyn Davies said...

Frankie - I would certainly do my best and give my full commitment to the job.

Anon - Not everyone reads page 13 of the Daily Mail, and its unlikely to be covered in the local weekly paper, the County Times. I was told yesterday that journalists had been parked outside his house in Newtown, and the article was sent to me earlier today. I just don't know how voters will react to the stream of articles in national newspapers about this sort of thing.

You Know who said - I do not know who. My antipathy to the Communications Alllowance is well known to regular readers - and I think the using up of what's left in the pot, before the ban comes in is just not right at all - but I suspect other politicians may have done this a s well. I too was very surprised by how much money is pumped into the Lib Dem offices in Newtown. I recall how scrupulous I was required to be when renting an office from the Conservative Association when I was an Assembly Member - independent valuations etc.. But that's the way it is, and the other candidates in Montgomeryshire just have to grit their teeth and get on with it.

You know me as well said - I can imagine what Pam, Aled, Nick and the others Association activists who help me would think were I to go swanning off on a six day freebie on a cruise liner in the Med., when I was being paid to serve Montgomeryshire as her MP. I'd be afraid to come home again, and that's how it should be. And there's no reason why those working hard for the Lib Dem cause should not be thinking the same. But perhaps they are different, and don't mind. They would be most welcome to comment on this blog.

Jacko said...

Glyn, do you think you can over turn the 7,000 majority that LO has over you?

My concern would be that although your working hard and Lembit seems to have turned atleast some supports off with his 'antics', LO's recognition levels are far higher than yours.

Wether or not LO's staff get angry/frustrated with him it makes no difference to the campaign.

Their all fighting for their jobs.

Anonymous said...

It would be a total disgrace if the County Times ignored the Daily Mail story on Lembit misclaiming for his flat. The man is a liability and will probably lose the seat for the Libs here in Mont. This latest scandal about LO, coupled with his freebie cruise and the crazy abuse of public money for his electrical work in London, has done it for me. You now have my vote and good riddance to bad rubbish

Gary Price said...

They have been going the same in Brecon & Radnor as well.

Anonymous said...

LO MUST be toast now. USE this stuff, Glyn. USE it.....

lads said...

You're right Glyn. There will be quite a few of us keeping you working hard after you've been elected - and before for that matter!

Glyn Davies said...

Jacko - I don't like to go around, as politicians are wont to do, claiming victory is in the bag. All I say is that I think we are in with a chance. Importantly, a lot of other Montgomeryshire people think so as well - though those who do not live here just look at the national swings and have little idea of the state of play 'on the ground'. Are you local?

Anon - Well it was totally ignored. It is a touch ironc that almost every national newspaper has covered seriously negative stories - plus Newsnight and others. Yet its all ignored by the local newspaper. But thats the way it is.