Don't Frighton the Horses.

All the horses in Flintshire are heading for cover. Carl Sergeant has just asked a question in the chamber about the promotion of horse riding. Now I'm sure Carl won't mind me saying that he would represent something of a challenge for even the most study nag. To make matters worse, he then received support from Brynle Williams who would also never describe himself as a lightweight. The horses of North Wales are trembling with fearful anticipation.

EU Tug of War

Developments within the EU were on my agenda yesterday. Firstly a 'prominent' Conservative hoping to become an AM telephoned me for advice about whether to make a public commitment to support the campaign to withdraw the UK from the EU. It seems that several Conservative MP's and MEP's have already made such a commitment. I could not offer any clear advice but I hope there is room in our party for people who hold non-mainstream views. I also said that I would not myself be signing up to such a campaign.

And last night I met the delightfully friendly Raduta Matache, the Acting Ambassador for Romania and the equally friendly and imposing Charge d'Affair for Bulgaria . We were all guests of Andy Klom, Head of the EU Commission Office in Wales at a reception at Caspian Point. Both representatives made a nice speech, Ms Matache having gone to the trouble to learn several phrases in the Welsh Language.

Two small incidents! Maybe. But I do believe they are representative of the split in UK opinion. It is interesting that in East European countries the EU is seen as the way to a better future and a safer world, while in the UK even non -withdrawalists like me see excessive regulation and bureaucratic waste before we see the pluses.

Its all about Ieuan

The dominating issue in the National Assembly today has been tomorrow's vote on the Government's Final Budget. At the moment, it looks as if the Government is going to lose the vote. If this were to happen, Rhodri Morgan should resign immediately and the AMs who voted down his budget should be prepared to put together some sort of 'caretaker arrangement' to take us through to the Assembly election. But it seems that Rhodri has made it clear that he is going to sit tight. But who knows? Carwyn Jones and Andrew Davies must be on tenterhooks - preparing themselves for a leadership election which would surely follow a resignation. The depressing aspect of all this is that our Assembly is left looking like a Mickey Mouse Parliament. If a Government loses its budget, it should resign, full stop.

But is Ieuan Wyn Jones going to save Rhodri's skin? Poor old Ieuan has gone all sensitive on us - always a mistake in politics. I'm told that since I referred to him last week as 'Wobbly' Wyn Jones and as the Hokey Kokey King of Welsh Politics, he's become so upset that he is no longer willing to work with the Tories at all. He's ditched the Lib-Dems as well. This is a bit of a gamble. All this afternoon he has been trying to rescue the position by working on the Labour Government to give him a bit of extra money so that he can claim that he has acheived some great victory- which would enable him to let the budget through tomorrow. I have always had a soft spot for Plaid Cymru and things looked so bad for them in the Chamber today when Ieuan was forced to concede a 'free vote' on some issue (because his members would not back him) that I began to feel sorry for them.

So onwards to tomorrow's debate. Will Plaid do a deal and let Labour off the hook? Will Labour be defeated on its budget? Will Rhodri Morgan resign if he loses? Will we all look even more stupid by having to come back again next week for another go at it? It is all such a shambles at the moment that I do not think anyone knows the answer to any of these questions. Politics is an unpredictable business.

No Smoking in the 'Fangre'

An interesting piece of info in today's Telegraph about 'No Smoking' signs in Wales. For donkey's years there has been widespread use of the notice 'Dim Ysmygu' which means 'No smoking'. But it seems that the Assembly Government has decided on a new sign which says 'Mae ysmygu yn y fangre hon yn erbyn y gyfraith'.
Now there is nothing unusual in the Assembly Goverment coming up with an announcement which is gobbledegook beyond understanding - but on this occassion they have gone one better than usual. I am told that no-one has ever heard of this word 'Fangre'. The Telegraph tells us that it is a word that has not been used in living memory. We truly have a backwards looking Government.

The Strange Facts about The Box Jellyfish

Took part in a quiz in Cardiff last night organised by the World Wildlife Fund. Congratulations to the Plaid Cymru team on winning the Politician's Prize. The Tory team had to be satisfied with coming second to Plaid - something we intend to put right next May.

Learnt a lot about the natural world. The most unforgettable gem of information that we picked up is that the Box Jellyfish has 64 anus's. This astonishing fact was particularly interesting to me because since the lower B
bowel re-section operation I underwent 4 years ago after going down with colorectal cancer, I don't have one at all. The poor old Box Jellyfish must live its life in a state of total confusion.

The Dangerous Mr Griffin

Last night, I finally realised how much of a threat the BNP are. I went to a 60th birthday party in my village where I heard several friends, very sensible people in every other way, speak well of Mr Nick Griffin, leader of the BNP. I have never met Mr Griffin but he lives nearby and often parks his car near my office in Welshpool. Many people tell me that Mr Griffin and his family are personable and popular.

"What is going on" I ask myself. And the more I ask, the more worried I become. This small personal experience is part of the national debate that is taking off about multi-culturalism. Even in the deepest recesses of rural Mid Wales, where a black face or a muslim veil are rarely seen, there is growing disquiet about the non-integration of people who move into Britain from other cultures. All my life I have accepted the orthadoxy of multi-culturalism. But when I hear the debate, clamour even, that seems to be breaking out around my ears, I am forced to ask myself some hard questions. Trevor Phillips, Chair of the Commission for Racial Equality started the debate in my head. Then Jack Straw went public in a seriously risky way. And Tony Blair made public statements this week that could well have seen him branded a 'racist' if he had made them two years ago. There is a lot of fertile ground for the seeds of poison to be sown.

The nasty Mr Griffin and some of his unsavoury henchmen that we have seen on our televisions is not too much of a problem. We can see what they are. But the nice Mr Griffin and his unfailingly polite acqaintancies who convey their 'messages' around rural Wales are highly bloody dangerous.

Poor Little Foxes

Sad little story in today's Western Mail about cruelty to foxes. An estate in Mid Wales has been accused of improperly using animal snares to catch foxes. (They are called 'whole body restraints in Ireland). What the kind-hearted folk who forced through the ban on foxhunting (with its immediate and certain death if the fox is caught) are now finding is that the much more cruel system of fox control through snaring is now increasing. It pains me to say so but the ban on foxhunting has led to an overall increase in animal cruelty - as any born-and-bred countryman knew it would.

There will now inevitably be a campaign to ban snaring - as I am told it is banned in parts of Europe. I am unsure about whether to support such a campaign because I haven't seen any evidence to tell me whether shooting, which would inevitably take its place, would be even more cruel. I still have the image in my mind of the cutest little fox cub, which played on my mother-in-law's lawn every morning a couple of years ago being shot and taking three days to die - probably of gangrene.

It really is rather sad when a campaign by the well intentioned actually causes an increase in the cruelty they want to reduce. Our poor little foxes have to pay the price.

Revenge of a Spurned Suitor

I read in today's Western Mail that I and fellow blogger, Peter Black are less than impressed by the policy gymnastics of Plaid Cymru over the Assembly Government's budget. I was content with Martin Shipman's reporting of my strong critisms - except that I wish I had not referred to Plaid Cymru as the 'nationalists'. I won't do that again. It has a unacceptable ring of gratuitous disrespect about it.

For months, I have been trying to point out to Plaid Cymru that if the people of Wales are to be offered a genuine choice at the next election, there must be the prospect of a non-Labour option. All of us hope we can win a sufficient number of seats to form a Government on our own - but this is not likely. In a Proportional Representation system we are all forced to consider compromises and joint programmes. The alternative is to be confined to the touchline of politics for ever. There are many Plaid members who find it difficult to contemplate working in harness with Tories - no matter how much we have changed. There are also many Tories who would prefer permanent opposition to forming any sort of relationship with Plaid Cymru or the Lib-Dems. And I don't relish the thought either. But without the prospect of power, there is little point in being in politics at all.

The budget discussions have really exposed Plaid Cymru. There is absolutely no point in threatening to vote down the Assembly Government's Final Budget without the determination to remove the Government from office if the vote is lost - and it would be irresponsible to force the Government out without being prepared to take over the reins of power. Without this level of determination, the whole exercise is posturing. At 12.15 last Tuesday Ieuan Wyn Jones was leading a group of leaders who gave every indication that they meant business. Two hours later, the Plaid Cymru leader had not so much 'blinked' as put his head in a paper bag. And that is why I ask myself how it is possible to work with a party which is so long on rhetoric - and so short on the guts needed to take on the ruthless Labour machine which has dominated Welsh politics for a century. In the circumstances 'Wobbly' is about the kindest word that I can come up with.

The Week's Big Story

Forget the posturing over the Assembly Budget - where Plaid Cymru bottled out at the thought of power. Forget Gen. Sir Mike Jackson's devastating critique of the Labour Government's support for the Army. Forget the Chancellor's latest and massive tax grab in the guise of 'green' policy. The big story of the week was Kate Barker's proposals on how to change the planning system. The Report applies only to England - but will have just as much an impact, albeit indirect, on Wales.

Kate Barker's Report would transform the way we live in Britrain. As always with these 'major change' reports, she has got some things right and some things wrong. She is right to propose removing a whole raft of development from the control of the planning system. Where the neighbours are happy, homeowners would be able to build extentions, conservatories, etc. without any reference to the planning authorities. Very sensible rolling back of the leviathon state.

Where she is wildly wrong is to propose building all over the Green Belt in the South-East of England. This is the last thing we need. The right response is to have much more permissive planning regimes in the other parts of Britain - to spread prosperity. And how can any political party make claim to localism (which is the fashion at the moment) without giving Local Planning Authorities more freedom to decide policy in their own areas. We know that concentrating more development - and investment - and jobs - and everything else in the South East will increase division, injustice and resentment in the North and Cornwall etc.

And the same applies in Wales. Which is one of the two main reasons why I am so doubtful about the idea of a Severn Barrage. For years we have had too much of focus on Cardiff - in my view at the expense of the rest of Wales. The concentration of resources on the South East corner if a barrage were to go ahead would make the position a whole lot worse. I cannot say that the need to develop renewable energy could not persuade me to change my mind on this - but my personal view, at present is that I would back a new nuclear power station before a Severn Barrage.

Shock or Scandal

Yesterday morning, Labour AM John Griffiths strolled into the Member's Tearoom, whereupon his eyes fell upon a strange sight indeed. There were two young ladies, up from London in the company of my colleague, Brynle Williams and myself. One of the young ladies had extracted from her case a black leather strappy appliance, which was fitted with two electrodes and which could be worn around the neck, the leg or the arm. There was a choice of one short pulse of electriciry, several intermittent pulses or the full works in the form of a continuous pulse. I was being fitted up at the time. There's been so much publicity over the years about what parliamentarians get up to - but this was beyond anything that John had believed possible in the Tearoom. I was lucky I spotted him before he retreated, in order to appraise him of the entirely innocent explanation - before he started a rumour that would have brought disrespect upon the AMs concerned and the institution as a whole.

The two young ladies were from the Kennel Club and were lobbying us about the cruelty involved in the use of electric 'training' collars for dogs. The only way to understand the scale of pain involved was for one of us to try it out - and since Brynle suffered a touch of ill-health recently, the responsibility fell upon me.. The cups were cleared and the button was pressed. I yowled and both Brynle and I agreed to support the introduction of new regulations to control the use of these nasty little devices which, in the wrong hands, would be weapons of sadistic cruelty.

After persuading us of the merits of their case, the two young ladies were off to see Carwyn Jones, the Minister with resposibility far animal welfare. A politician's life is full of little shocks.

Happy Xmas to my Visitors

I have decided to take my duties as Chair of the National Assembly Committee responsible for the environment more seriously - by saving on taxies and so reduce my carbon footprint. I was caught on camara last week between meetings in Newtown, Montgomeryshire. I am thinking of hiring some huskies and a sleigh to speed things up a bit. If this traditional form of transport was OK for David Cameron on his recent visit to Norway to see melting glaciers, then its OK for me.

If anyone has a better suggestion by which I can cut back on my personal carbon emissions, please let me know

Hopes Dashed

I hear that Plaid Cymru are backing down over the Government'sFinal Budget. Sure, Ieuan is trying to make lot of distracting noise in the chamber at the moment. But I am hearing rumours that the reality is that Plaid are going to issue a statement later today, stating that a coalition to replace Rhodri Morgan is 'not realistic'. This would be a gigantic U-turn. This would be letting Labour completely off the hook. This would be letting the people of Wales down. Threats are no use unless there is a spike of steel to back it up.

If opposition parties do not accept the Government's Final Budget, they must have thhe courage of their convictions and follow it through and vote the Government down - even if this means the resignation of Labour and forming a Government in its place. At midday today, Ieuan was leading a group of leaders telling us this was what they were going to do. A few hours later and if what I hear turns out to be true it will be the fastest retreat since the poor sap who last faced Amir Khan.

Bang goes my chance of being a Minister. No huge Ministerial salary. No Ministerial car. No huge staff to prepare my speeches etc. etc. etc.

Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government"

Wow! I've just been down to a Joint Press Briefing by the leaders of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The message was clear. There has been no agreement on the Assembly Government's Final Budget. On Wednesday,next week, all the opposition AMs are going to combine to vote it down.

Vaughan Roderick when asking his question reminded everyone that Rhodri Morgan has said publicly that if he fails to get his budget through, he will resign. When the inevitable question was put, the answer was clear. Mike German said that if Rhodri were to kick the ball into the middle of the pitch, the opposition parties would pick it up. Nick Bourne said when asked if they were ready to form a Government in place of Labour, "Yes, of course we will".

Now, this is big stuff. Heels have been dug into the ground. Are Labour about to resign? The answer could be 'Yes'. So I say to all oposition AMs as they prepare for their Xmas break, go back to your constituecies and prepare for Government - from next week!!

Xmas Disaster

Yesterday morning I competed in the Santa Run at Newtown. I have to do this every year so that my sons, who also compete, can enjoy visiting upon me the humiliation of defeat. This year I was in a weakened state, suffering the lingering effects of Staphylacoccus Aureae. I just wasn't ready for it and didn't spot the danger. As I crossed the finishing line, out of the crowd leapt Lembit Opik, who put a friendly arm around my shoulder. To make matters worse, this act of support was captured by a passing cameraman.

Now, those who read this blog will remember the disastrous effect that 'The Curse of Lembit' had on the career of every potential leader of the Liberal Democrats when Charles Kennedy was forced to resign earlier this year. I fear the worst. Any 'leadership' ambitions that I might have had have been immediately suspended as a precaution.

Notes
a) Mick Bates was there. He was so busy entertaining the crowd with hand gestures that he missed the camara - another first.
b) In yesterday's Sunday Telegraph I read that Mark Oaten had been thinking of joining the Conservatives. Should have made me aware of the 'Curse'
c) While out on the run, I noticed that Lembit's Office in Newtown is still called the Liberal Office - no sign of the Democrat word.

James Powell and the NFU

This 'blog' is opposed to the gratuitous use of profanity. But the recent conviction of James Powell, a Llangynidr farmer cannot pass without comment. According to the Brecon and Radnor Express he was found guilty of 'displaying words likely to cause harrassment, alarm or distress' and was given a conditional discharge. He was also ordered to pay £500 prosecution costs.

Now to my involvment. At this year's Royal Welsh Show, I visited the NFU Building and ventured out onto the balcony which affords a spendid view of the Main Ring.. Immediately, I spotted someone in the passing throng, waving and smiling in my direction. I naturally responded only for several others to join in the exchange of friendly gestures. For fully 10 minutes, I thought my political campaigning was paying the sort of dividend that I have been dreaming of. I felt the inner warmth of public appreciation enter my deeper conciousness. Then I turned around and the inner glow evaporated, as does any spark of goodwill at First Minister's Questions.

High up on the roof behind me was Mr James Powell, holding aloft a huge banner proclaiming that my hosts, the NFU were 'No F****** Use'. Spiderman himself would not have won as much attention. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the whole affair was that the man who manages the NFU Building at Llanelwedd told the court that he was deeply upset and distressed by the use of such language. I have to observe that this man doesn't get out much. He needs to spend time talking less to farmers and other countrymen who have been left trailing in the profanity stakes. I would further advise him not to drive down St Mary's St. in the evening with his car window down. He would hear worse than that pouring forth from the mouths of babes with angelic faces, just chatting on the pavement.

As it happens, I consider the NFU to be an exceptionally competent body.

Cheerless Christmas

I received my first Xmas card this morning. I am not sure who it was from but it had printed upon it a poem as cheerless as aKyffin landscape.

Wheel of Misfortune

Wales, Wales
My beautiful,gentle, rugged homeland
How I ache to see your plight
Feel your pain, share your shame
Your moss like fields so pleasing to the eye
Turned into scrap-yards,
It makes me cry
Your green grass verges stoned and staked
For people's greed and parking space
Your majestic woodlands defiled, and raped
Trapped they have no escape

Unwanted, unnecessary, unneeded,
Caravan parks mushrooming up
Devouring, taking, marring your landscape
Never to be replaced
Your footprints strewed with cars
Silently waiting for the inevitable
Lamp-posts, road signs, roundabouts dripping with advertising
Road-side selling, highway billboards
Soiling, spoiling your stately fabric
How can the powers that be
Stand idly by
And live with what they see
Sadly
As long as there is breath in me
I must object to what 'I' see

With one or two changes this could be renamed 'Ode to a Wind Turbine'

It should have been Nicole

Watched the glitzy BBC Sports Pesonality of the Year tonight. It looked a really good night out. I was offered a ticket but couldn't go. I suppose it was entirely predictable that Joe Calzaghe would win - but my vote went to Nicole Cooke. And I would vote for Nicole to win the UK title as well. She has performed brilliantly over the last year and is the best cyclist Britain has ever had - and by a long mile. If she was French or Italian or Spannish or anything else European, she would be winning every award in sight. Maybe next year Nicole.

Joe had a good year though. The total destruction of Jeff Lacey was one of the finest exhibitions of the noble art that I have ever seen. But he let himself down by going in against the headbutter, Bika with far too cocky an attitude - and nearly paid the price. He just needs to tempt Bernard Hopkins out of retirement for one last big payday in the States - and then hang up his gloves while he still has his looks and brain intact.
Joe is not too popular in our house because of the caustic comments he made about Tim Henman, who is probably the best tennis player that Britain has ever produced. ( I can't remember Fred Perry). It really annoys me when so called sports fans dismiss Tim as a 'loser' as Calzaghe did. Its like calling Giggs a loser because he never won 'World Footballer of the Year'.

I wonder whether we modern, compassionate, reasonable Welsh Tories are supposed to enjoy watching fighters knocking six bells out of each other. But I can't help it . I could get into a fight playing conkers - when I was young. I even enjoyed the Zidane headbutt - and to this day, think it an entirely understandable response to family insults.

Murky Red Sunset

This post is unashamedly partisan and is only suitable for dyed-in-the-wool Conservatives. It is a very anti Welsh Labour post.
Rhodri Morgan played his trump card this week - and hardly anyone noticed. Sure, Tomos Livingstone in the Western Mail and both of Thursday's political TV shows, Waterfront and Dragon's Eye covered his 'Venus di Milo' speech in Swansea - but this is minority coverage in the wider scheme of things. Most people, even in Wales, take the UK media and it completely ignored his announcement that New Labour is dead, deceased, gone with Blair. The First Minister's desperate attempt to distance himself from the sinking ship, HMS Blair was a near total flop. And it deserved to be - because it was gibberish.

Comparing the New Labour Project, built as it is on image rather than acheivement with a genuine work of art was just plain daft - and I'm surprised anyone mentioned it except to mock the stupidity of it all. And then there is the illogicality of 'interring' New Labour in the same breath as lauding Gordon Brown, who was probably more its creator than any other single person.

And Rhodri Morgan's record is not what some commentaters crack it up to be. His 'good result' at the last Assembly election was down to a complete loss of direction and focus by Plaid Cymru - and the continued popularity of Tony Blair and the continued failure of my party to reconnect with voters to any significant degree. I never thought the rubbish about 'clear red water' had any effect outside the tiny little political village in Wales. For several years the performance of Rhodri Morgan in the National Assembly has lacked any authority and he has looked more like a 70s trade union official than a First Minister. He has been a poor 'ambassador' for Wales. Who can forget his excruciating performances on Newsnight and Question Time. Just like John Prescott, Rhodri has become the subject of humour rather than the exponent of it.

Anyway the 'clear red water' philosophy is no more than the wholesale distribution of taxpayer's money. It worked in the short term - but the chickens have come home to roost because the Asembly Govern,ment does not have the power to raise taxes (except indirectly through Council Tax). The reason the First Minister's latest attempt to portray himself as the 'change Wales needs' will fail is because the Welsh people have sussed out Rhodri Morgan. He deserves to be removed from office. It will be the most massive indictment of the opposition parties if the Labour Group is not significantly reduced in size next May.

Bonds Galore in Wales

Saw Casino Royale last night. Too much of Bond's tendancy towards violence for my taste - and not enough of his penchant for 'the ladies' (as we used to say before it became politically incorrect). Since all of Bond's 'ladies' seem to move straight from the bedroom to the grave, becoming involved with him has become a decidedly risky activity.

But who are the 'Bonds' in our National Assembly. In a previous 'post' I observed that John Marek has a Bond-like survival instinct - and the traditional prickly relationship with M in the Presiding Officer's Chair. I have looked around for potential stand-ins. I offer you Brynle Williams, Mick Bates and Carl Sergeant. All three positively reek of 'menace'.

Brynle has already shown his power to destroy. In Casino Royale, Daniel Craig brings down a building in Venice. Small beer. Brynle brought the entire nation to its knees with his fuel blockade and forced Gordon Brown to take a step backwords. Even Bond couldn't do that. And Mick Bates has demonstrated his utter contempt for diplomatic fancy-dancy protocols. Who else would wear a Santa suit in the crucible of Welsh democracy - and give 'The Finger' to authority so fearlessly. I offer Carl Sergeant because he instills such fear in all around him. A quiet word from Carl and I even seen Huw Lewis at his most 'spiky' just fade away. Carl is not a man to be tanged with. Every Tuesday, after all the opposition parties have given Jane Hutt, the Government's Business Manager her weekly mauling, up leaps the Labour 'enforcer' to rebuff all attacks and give heart to his beleagured colleague. Of course, if Wigley was still around, his family connections with Murrey the Hump, Al Capone's right hand man would make him an obvious candidate for audition. So if Daniel Craig was serious about retirement last night, there are plenty of potential 00s in Wales.

Cameron under Attack

I was taken aback by the sheer ferocity of Jeff Randall's attack on David Cameron in today's Telegraph. 'RANDALL DISPARAGES CAMERA-ON' - 'So anxious is he to prove his lovey-dovey, caring-sharing credentials that he risks doing precisely that which he is telling colleagues they must avoid; boxing in the party on future policy'. And there was more. This is strong stuff from a straight-talking pundit that I enjoy reading - and usually agree with. But this time Randall has got it wrong. He makes a fair point about the need to ensure that business feels more valued by the Conservatives - but he seems to have no understanding of the over-riding need to broaden the base of our popular support.

The Cameron strategy is not about our position in the opinion polls over the short term (at least I hope not) - and everything about changing the perception of our party in the long term. Cameron must challenge the stereotype pin-stripe Tory image. We have to satisfy people that we care as much about the weakest in our society as much as we want to release the energy of the strongest. (Not a bad line for a Cameron speech!).

I fully understand the frustration behind Jeff Randall's tirade and the Party must 'take note' of such a ferocious shot across the bows. But, speaking as someone who did not back David Cameron for the leadership, I believe he is doing a hugely challenging job as well as any of us could have hoped.