Saturday, May 07, 2011

My take on Thursday's results.

Been busy. Missed Thursday night's sleep - and paid a heavy price in pain and setback in 'operation recovery' for the pleasure of sharing Russell's victory. And fulfilling a promise to speak to Llanidloes 6th form at 9.00 Friday morning. Rested a lot since then, and today there's marked improvement in mobility. Be back on the treadmill in 10 days I reckon - after over a year's break. Anyway what did I think of Thursday's results.

In Scotland, Alex Salmond pulled off a huge success, leaving Labour in turmoil. Very bad day for Ed Miliband in Scotland. Not much to be said about the Conservatives really. What we know for the first time now is that some serious thinking needs to be done, to ensure Scotland remains a part of the Union. The Prime Minister needs to draw more on the well of inspiration that injected fire into the NOtoAV campaign.

In England, it was a good Council elections result for the Conservatives. Twelve months into a programme of repairing the national finances, with all the pain that entails, and we more than hold our position. That was an incredible result. The reality is that the Lib Dems had a disaster, Labour won fewer seats than expected, and the Conservatives won more than expected.

In Wales in was a good night for Labour, but not good as they hoped it would be. I'd felt they might do 31 - but fell just short. I sense that Labour might go it alone in the short term, with some sort of side arrangement for comfort. There is no Alex Salmond in Wales. Plaid and the Lib Dems had a poor night, especially the former. I was really sorry to see the demise of Helen Mary Jones though. Not only did we go to the same school, but she's made of admirably tough stuff, and her sister's a fellow soldier in the war on destruction of mid Wales by turbine. Nice to see another Powys man, William Powell take his place in the Bay (thanks to Russell). IWJ looks a beaten man at present. He needs to look as if he believes in himself, so that his colleagues can. Could the reverend who enjoys a cigar be looking to even up the score - or is that me causing trouble again.

The Conservatives had a better than expected night. I knew Russell George was going to win, and he'll make a really good AM. Because of my own experiences in 2007, I realised that his victory would mean Nick Bourne was likely to lose his seat. Angela Burns and Janet Finch Saunders pulled off cracking results, and at a personal friend level, its great to see Byron make it (by another turn of the quirky wheel). We need a new leader of the Assembly Group, and we chose an ideal man, in Paul Davies, to manage the contest. I'm think I know who's going to win, but I intend to keep secret how I cast that particular vote. I'm really sorry to see Jonathon Morgan lose his seat. He was a real talent. I wonder what Brynle makes of it all. I'd love a chat with the old rascal.


Anonymous said...

Dull campaign and dull result! I'd say there were no clear winners. Yes, Labour's share of the vote rose substantially but looking at the map- they have made NO gains out of their heart land it's quite amazing how solid red the NEast and South is. So on the whole not that great a result. They really should've won Carm S.Pem and Aberconwy and even Arfon for it to be a good night. They didn't.

At first it looks like an awful night for Plaid, but a few votes here and there and they would not have lost seats. However losing Aberconwy was bad.

Of all I'd say it was a good day for the Tories. Winning Carm S.Pem was remarkable, and Aberconwy also good. But again, a few votes here and there and it would have been different. But on the whole a good night- particularly in your neck of the woods.

The LibDems at first look like it was a good night. But really it wasn't, losing all but one constituent, huge swings of support and regional and constituent level. There seems to be no campaign base, which could be problematic in the future.

I'd agree with IWJ, I think Plaid have lost their direction. However it is important that he stays in the interim period so they can analyse the party and then get a leader. Though I don't think there are suitable one in the Senedd. On 'the Reverend', everyone says he wants to get back at him; I saw them once in Cardiff having a bit of an argument; but I was wondering what's the story?

On the Conservatives, I DEFINITELY know who I DON'T want as leader; I won't name him but let's say he's too vocal to being a Welsh leader. Whether you agree or not, the Conservatives HAVE 'Welsh-ified' themselves; particularly if you contrast the manifesto with Labour. This appeals to a lot of people (i.e me!) and so should continue. My preference would have been Mr Melding, but if not Paul Davies would be a good leader. I know Angela may run, but I don't know much about her.

What I would say on a more general view. But it seems that Wales is moving from being 'Left-Left' to being more to the centre. Perhaps parties should consider this for the next elections.

Glyn Davies said...

Not much I disagree with there.

Anonymous said...

Yes - Not a very good night for Labour at all with new AMs due to two Plaid candidates in Llanelli splitting the vote and just clawing back Lib Dem votes in many areas of Wales. The failure to take Clwyd West from Darren M and of Christine Gwyther to take Carmarthen West/Pembs - as well as no progress at all in Arfon or Mon showed now limited they are to two compact power bases in Cardiff and the Valleys and North East Wales. Peter Hain who was confident of an Aberconwy Victory following a host of manjor Labour events in Llandudno saw they stay in a poor third place!