The Independent has informed its readers that Montgomeryshire is one of 21 seats which the Conservatives would not have won if the election had been fought under the AV system. It informs its readers that Lembit Opik would not have been beaten by me under AV. Total 'cobblers'. I've never actually bought an Independent, and if this is the sort of tripe it comes up, I'm not going to change the habit of my lifetime, at least that during which the Independent has been limping along. Lets just look at the figures, and you can tell me where you think I might be wrong. The result was as follows;
Glyn Davies - Conservative ----- 13,976
Lembit Opik - Liberal Democrat - 12,792
Heledd Fychan - Plaid Cymru ----- 2,802
Nick Colbourne - Labour --------- 2,407
David Rowlands - Ukip ----------- 1,128
Milton elis - National front ------ 384
Bruce Lawson - Independent -------- 324
50% of the vote would have been -16,907 --- assuming the same number of people voted.
Here's my guess on how preferences would have broken down, though this has to be no more than indicative, because only a proportion of people would have cast preferences. The one party that would have been expected to grasp AV with most enthusiasm, but since their preferences would be unlikely to come into it, we can leave then out. In any case, none of them could have given the Lib Dems a single preference vote! My assumptions are that the preferences would have broken down thus;
Bruce Lawson/Milton Elis would have been shared between Lib Dems and Conservatives
UKIP would have broken 2;1 to the Conservatives.
Labour would have broken 3;1 to the Lib Dems
Plaid would have been shared or been shaded by the Conservatives.
With us being 1,200 ahead (needing just 3,000 preferences) there is no way in the world that the Independent is talking anything but b******* - mathematical fantasy. Let anyone who disagrees let us see their realistic assumptions.
And I should mention that I've done very little canvassing in support of the No to AV campaign. I reckoned that because of the close link between the Conservative Party and opposition to AV, the best thing I could do was my best to support the Conservative candidate, Russell George. I have been proud to do that. I hope we've done enough to ensure he wins on Thursday.
10 comments:
Truth is Glyn- absolutely NOBODY knows. Not the independent, and not you so don't bother worrying or wasting your breath on it!
How do I know this? well I know who I voted for, and I know if I'd have had more than one vote, I would not have put that person as my 1st preference.
This is I'm sure true for most people.
The only good thing from AV (in my view) is that it'll stop me only having a 'blocking' vote. I.e I don't want X in so I'll vote for Y. Instead I'll be able to vote for minority parties (and I will [sorry!]) as I will know it won't be a 'wasted' vote as it currently is.
As for the Independent, do read it again. On the whole during the Election Campaign- it is one of the best papers to read. Also, apart from the Guardian, I think it has more articles on Welsh politics than any other. Although I've now gone off the Guardian as in my view, it feels more partisan after Labour left power (although I do read the 'media' part as it has some interesting thoughts on BBC, and SKY takeover). One things for sure- I will never read the Daily Mail again!
Anyway, just thought I'd say get well soon!. I can only imagine that apart from the knees, having an operation on your back/spine perhaps is one of the most painful things to have. Although I'm not a doctor. Keep up the recovery (although again I'm not a doctor!).
Fair comment anon. I suppose my aim was to show how unwise it is for us to switch to an AV system of voting as to ridicule the Independent. Your comment has been particularly helpful in achieving the first objective.
Glyn,
I wonder how many of the electoarate would put down a full list of alternatives. In my case I would only have indicated my first choice, the other candidates held no attraction.
Yes you would have won anyway, but how many seats would not actually reach the required 50%. It's this that makes the AV system such a nonsense.
JB
JB - Iagree with you, and as writing this post, I thought there would have been a fair chance that Montgomeryshire would be a constituency where this might happen. As a considered guess, I reckon that under AV I'd have been elected with about 49% of the vote, the Lib Dems being left on about 47%. Now ther's going to be some people who will not understand how that could happen. What a ridiculous system of voting.
calm down dear!
It's worrying that John Humphreys on BBC today programme yesterday, when interviewing David Cameron, disagreed with Cameron's assertion that some people get their vote taken into account multiple times, and some people don't. "If one person doesn't reach 50%, everyone's second preference is taken into account, he asserted." Patently wrong, as Cameron was quick to point out. If Humphreys doesn't understand AV, how can anyone else?
I think you would have lost under AV.
Most of Labour would've then gone to Lembit (not now perhaps). Plaid would've split 2:1 to you. UKIP would've gone to you. Milton Ellis to you but Bruce Lawson split betw you and Lembo. Lembo would've won, and I don't think that would've been the right result.
I really think you should comment on election results. Try and keep up!
I recall that Glasgow University had some such voting system for picking the Rector of the university. You had one vote and a second vote ... and guess what; it was so confusing I can't remember! First past the post is a LOT simpler. Let's stick with that. Cheers.
Christopher Wood, PhD (Glasgow)
Anon 3.36 - I reckon that you are rather more generous in your allocation of preferences to me than I was. Its your counting that seems to be at fault. I'd given Labour to Lembit by 3 to 1, and UKIP to me by 2 to 1. You seem to agree with that call. All you need to do is feed an assumption about the number of votes who would not agree a preference at all, and you're there. Happy counting.
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