The Independent has informed its readers that Montgomeryshire is one of 21 seats which the Conservatives would not have won if the election had been fought under the AV system. It informs its readers that Lembit Opik would not have been beaten by me under AV. Total 'cobblers'. I've never actually bought an Independent, and if this is the sort of tripe it comes up, I'm not going to change the habit of my lifetime, at least that during which the Independent has been limping along. Lets just look at the figures, and you can tell me where you think I might be wrong. The result was as follows;
Glyn Davies - Conservative ----- 13,976
Lembit Opik - Liberal Democrat - 12,792
Heledd Fychan - Plaid Cymru ----- 2,802
Nick Colbourne - Labour --------- 2,407
David Rowlands - Ukip ----------- 1,128
Milton elis - National front ------ 384
Bruce Lawson - Independent -------- 324
50% of the vote would have been -16,907 --- assuming the same number of people voted.
Here's my guess on how preferences would have broken down, though this has to be no more than indicative, because only a proportion of people would have cast preferences. The one party that would have been expected to grasp AV with most enthusiasm, but since their preferences would be unlikely to come into it, we can leave then out. In any case, none of them could have given the Lib Dems a single preference vote! My assumptions are that the preferences would have broken down thus;
Bruce Lawson/Milton Elis would have been shared between Lib Dems and Conservatives
UKIP would have broken 2;1 to the Conservatives.
Labour would have broken 3;1 to the Lib Dems
Plaid would have been shared or been shaded by the Conservatives.
With us being 1,200 ahead (needing just 3,000 preferences) there is no way in the world that the Independent is talking anything but b******* - mathematical fantasy. Let anyone who disagrees let us see their realistic assumptions.
And I should mention that I've done very little canvassing in support of the No to AV campaign. I reckoned that because of the close link between the Conservative Party and opposition to AV, the best thing I could do was my best to support the Conservative candidate, Russell George. I have been proud to do that. I hope we've done enough to ensure he wins on Thursday.