Been doing lots of radio today about the anticipated announcement that a referendum be held on May 5th 2011 to decide whether the Alternative Vote system should be used at UK general elections. Its being reported that Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg is going to confirm this date shortly. My view is that a referendum must be held early in this Parliament - even though I'm personally supportive of the First Past the Post system. It was promised as part of the Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition agreement and must be honoured. A deal's a deal.
I also think that no more than one election (or referendum) should take place at the same time. Never been very keen on referendums. When we do have one, the only point of it is to establish what the people actually, genuinely believe - and so often the water surrounding referendums is muddied with red herrings galore. The vote itself usually ends up being about tangential to the question actually put. Its about what the campaigns manage to persuade people that the question is. This haziness is inevitably multiplied when there's more than one vote. And its often the case that one vote influences another - which is exactly the thinking behind the proposition that the referendum on AV be held on May 5th 2011.
So there's a choice. Either the AV vote is held later than May 5th (which is my preference) - or the Welsh General Election should be postponed by a month (as it is allowed to be). If the AV referendum is held on May 5th there could be a real danger of vote-overload amongst the electorate. We would have a referendum on moving to Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act (usually described as extra powers for the Assembly) in March, a vote on AV in May and the Welsh General Election in June. And Vaughan Roderick (who must never be discounted) thinks there might be a UK General Election in June if the AV referendum is lost.
5 comments:
Glyn, I enjoyed hearing you on Called To Order. I can understand the fuss over the timing of all the various votes but the one thing that does confuse me is what the AV vote is all about. From what I can make out, AV will actually mean very little...a few seats here and there. What do you think?
Anon - You ask a fair question. It may deliver a bit less tribalism in our political system. Essentially what it means is that candidates seeking election have to try to appeal beyond traditional party support, because second preferences will become as important as first preferences in many cases. In Montgomeryshire, I won around 40% of the vote, while the Lib Dems won around 37%. If I'd won 9% second preferences, while Lembit had won 15%, he won have been elected - under AV. It was thought that AV would disadvantage the Conservatives because it was thought that no Lib Dems or Labour voters would ever put the dreaded Tories second. Personally, I never believed that - and following the coalition many others do not believe it either. Personally, I do not see AV making a lot of difference - except for those politicians who treat supporters on other parties without respect. The one thing to remember with AV, is that it is not more proprtional than the current system - and it does retain the link between the electorate and the elected. Its proportionality that breaks that.
Well actually Glyn, I would vote Lib Dem first, Conservative second, then any remaining votes I wouldn't use. I wouldn't vote Labour or Plaid!
Have added a very supportive comment here, Glyn.
http://waleshome.org/2010/07/staggering-from-one-vote-to-the-next/
So we are facing three votes - and there is a logical sequence to them. The result of the referendum on legislative powers will have a material effect on the nature of the campaigns and the manifestos put before the electorate. viz the difference between a programme for government with primary legislative powers, or an inevitably more modest programme with the current arrangement. Therefore this referendum must be held before the assembly election and with sufficient breathing space to allow for separate party campaigns to shape themselves following a period of joint campaigning. It is logical, therefore, that the referendum should take place in early spring, with the Assembly election being held in June rather than May - as already provided for in the Government of Wales Act. As it can be no later than June, there is a time imperative that dictates this sequence. There is no such imperative in relation to the AV referendum. Indeed there is no requirement for it to be held in 2010 at all. All it requires is that it takes place before the next Westminster Election in 2015, but with a sufficient time gap to allow the Boundaries Commission to fulfil its various tasks. So the much vaunted Respect Agenda suggests to me that the ConDem Government should acknowledge the primacy of the 2011 Assembly Election and reschedule the AV referendum until at least autumn 2011 or better still spring 2012. Maybe this breathing space would have the added bonus of enabling the Government's ideas to mature enough to propose a change more meaningful and democratic than AV which at present could be the only campaign on record that fails to generate a Yes campaign!
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