Friday, January 01, 2010

Predictions and Aspirations.

What we think will happen is inevitably influenced by what we want to happen. So its not possible to completely separate my 'predictions' for 2010 from 'aspiration'. But I'll do my best. Here I go with the 10 that occur to me as I post. Tell me how many you think I've got right.

1) - A General Election will be held on May 6th. Following a deeply unpleasant campaign by Labour, David Cameron will enter 10 Downing Street, with an overall majority of 25. This result will confound the opinion polls of May 5th which predict a 'hung' Parliament. Ed Miliband will be elected as new leader of the Labour Party, and Vince Cable will have to strongly resist demands to challenge for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats.

2) - A referendum on moving to Part 4 of the Government of Wales 2006 Act will take place in October. After a nail biting count, the Yes side will emerge victorious by 53% to 47%. Lord Elis Thomas will arrange a 'leak' of his opinion that it was his personal intervention during the run up to the referendum that swung it.

3) - In a 'shock' General Election result in Wales, the Conservatives will snatch the constituency of Montgomeryshire from the Liberal Democrats for only the second time in over 100 years. The Plaid Cymru and Ukip candidates will increase their share of the vote. The Labour Party candidate will lose his deposit.

4) - France will win the 6 Nations, and Dan Biggar will take over the No 10 jersey for Wales at some stage during the tournament

5) - Brazil will beat England 2-1 in the final of the World Cup in South Africa. All of the British press will blame the referee for unfairly favouring Brazil.

6) - Andrew Murray will win the Wimbledon Men's Singles Title, defeating Del Potro in a tense final.

7) - Lewis Hamilton will win the Formula One World Championship in the last race of the season, while Jenson Button will not win a single GP.

8) - A new satellite renal dialysis unit will open in Welshpool, to much rejoicing.

9) - A massive public row will follow an announcement by National Grid that it intends to erect a 400 kw power line, on massive steel towers from Ironbridge in Shropshire, along the Severn Valley, terminating in a 'hub' located east of Newtown. (There is no shred of 'aspiration' in this, or the next 'prediction'.)

10) - The governments of the world will take no meaningful action to respond to 2010 being designated by the UN as The International Year of Biodiversity, despite the holding of several international conferences. This failure will rightly be described by naturalists as a great threat to the future of our world. Very few people will notice.


Anonymous said...

No 11 - Glyn Davies will start being proactive in his campaign in Montgomeryshire and start getting it that he could well win this seat if he made a bit more of a splash about thing

alanindyfed said...

Interesting, but no prediction concerning the state of the economy (uppermost in people's minds). Whether the recession will "return" (if it ever went away) and the austerity measures that the Tory government will have to introduce to pay off the immense national debt which Labour bequeathed.

In answer to your previous query: it is seven miles to the north of Skibbereen.

Glyn Davies said...

Anon - Doing my best, but always open to suggestions.

Alan - Fair point. Perhaps its just me wanting to be positive. There will be a budget in June, when we will be told for the first time what the true state of the economy is.

botical said...

Talking about 'predictions' - when will the Met Office issue an accurate long term weather forecast? They were wrong again this winter - and some local authorities are saying that it is not their fault they were caught off guard by the cold snap - they blamed the Met Office.

Anonymous said...

The General Election will be held in March, possibly the 25th.

The Tories will get in, with a farily large majority (50 - 100)

The BNP will gain their first MPs (I think about three).

Plaid will pay dearly for their support of Labour in the Assembly, reducing their MPs down to Two

Glyn Davies said...

botical - Personally, I no longer look at forecasts - now that I no longer make silage.

Anon - Possible, to avoid delivering a buget befor ethe election - but I doubt it. 17 weeks on Thursday it is.

JPT said...

Not sure about No3...

emancole said...

Glyn> just a thought, but the Met Office's weather predictions should be confined to the Comedy Channel or the dustbin. They got this past summer wrong, this winter too, and last winter wrong.

Glyn Davies said...

JPT - You mean the bit about the Labour candidate losing his deposit?

emancole - or get someone like Rusell Grant to read it.

Anonymous said...

Regarding Item 3

Can you see UKIP and Plaid gaining their share of the vote in Wales has a whole?

UKIP will increase their share of the vote, the Red Top Papers are very anti-European, and unfortunately, people believe what they read in the papers.

Plaid may increase their share of the vote in Wales has a whole, since they are seen as the Socialist Alternative, but then again they are also seen as the ball and chain of the Parish Council on the Bay, I really don't envy Carwyn Jones.....

Glyn Davies said...

Anon - I do think that Ukip may increase its share of the vote, though by not as much as it hopes or expects. I don't think Plaid will though. In Montg, Plaid have a lively candidate, but across Wales, I think the bubble has burst. The only reason Plaid may increase share of vote is as a consequence of a Labour collapse. I do not think Carwyn Jones or any of the other personalities in the Assembly will have much impact in the General Election.

Defcon X said...

For 2010? Watch out for Russian (and possibly Iran) setting up orbital 'platforms'. Russia is already making noises about setting up a capability to shoot down an asteroid - which by the way will likely include launches of various sensor platforms one of which will probably include 'space' for attachable nukes. Obama doesn't seem to realize that the Russians are not friendly in the classic sense, and will scheme to bypass Obama's overtures (such as not deploying a European land based anti-ICBM shield). Russian wants a platform in space that can be quickly upgraded to a weapons platform. Russia might want to take back its former satellites, what better way (in their eyes) than having the 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over EU heads (thus convincing EU states to tell the USA not to bother) - a Sword of Damocles is not required to render the EU states docile, that's a given, but a USA would be more reluctant to get involved in former Eastern Europe if the EU tells them to butt out. Schemes within schemes. Then there's Iran - working hard to acquire single man launched UAVs (from tubes barely 100 cms high) - or from an operators hand - the latest 'mini-me' UAVs have very sophisticated opto-electronics and target designators. Iran recently launched a small package into low earth orbit - actually weighed more than the latest mini-me UAVs.