Sunday, April 17, 2016

The Assembly Election.

Not many people are fully engaged with the Welsh Assembly elections being held two weeks on Thursday. UK politics being dominated by the EU Referendum. As expected. Which is why I was so disappointed the Referendum is being held on June 23rd rather that later in the year. Though I can understand why the Prime Minister did it and wants it behind him. But I'm engaged with the Assembly Election - which is one reason why, on principle, I'm not telling anyone which way I will vote on June 23rd until after May 5th.

I am giving my full support to Russell George in the election to choose a Montgomeryshire representative in our National Assembly for the next five years. Over the last five years, Russell has worked hard for us, and fully deserves to be re-elected. It's no surprise that there is great enthusiasm amongst local campaigners to knock on doors for him. The campaign is going very well. We are also supporting Chris Salmon in his campaign to seek re-election as Police and Crime Commissioner for Dyfed/Powys. Chris has also worked conscientiously and deserves another term.

But how is it going at a national level. Not been the best of recent weeks for Conservatives across UK. No good pretending otherwise. Been turbulence at Westminster on several fronts.  And the referendum divisions seem more pronounced in my party. UK sovereignty is an issue we really care about. I also think the Referendum is giving UKIP a public awareness boost. Most polls suggest UKIP will take 5 Assembly seats, all 'regional list' seats. While none of this is helpful to my party's cause, I still think the Welsh Conservatives will have a successful election.

So what's going to happen in 18 days time? Not much doubt but that Labout will lose it's overall majority in Cardiff Bay - despite the helpful noises and squabbling down the other end of the M4. Can't see Plaid going into full coalition, even if the numbers may make that the obvious option.  But could be some sort of confidence and supply deal I suppose. But my guess is Labour will try to run a minority Government if it can - depending on the results of course. Polls are sometimes wrong!! I'm hopeful that the Welsh Conservatives will hold off the Plaid challenge to be the official opposition. Andrew RT and his team have done that rather well. Too much of an unknown to know what any UKIP AMs will do. Oh, and I reckon Gary Price is in with a really good chance in Brecon and Radnorshire. And maybe the mood music will change over the next two weeks! 

6 comments:

Sarah Holloway said...

Am sure Russell George will, deservedly do well in Montgomeryshire.
Intrigued by the 'Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party' - up 2% in the regional vote from nowhere (Welsh Political Barometer April 2016). Know nothing about the candidates, their only policy seems to be to abolish the WAG, but if they've caught my attention, I suspect they may have caught that of others.
Anyway, 17 days is a long time in politics..

Mrs H Evans, Welshpool said...

I am still undecided who to vote for. I have however ruled out voting for Russell George as I have been less than impressed by his performance during debates held in the senedd and his lack of understanding about the important issues closer to home.

Aled Davies for the Welsh conservatives will get my regional vote. Aled has worked hard to get where he is and I have been impressed by his performance on Powys county council covering a wide range of issues. I am glad that Aled has been rewarded for his services as being named the top candidate for the welsh conservatives and I want to wish Aled the best of luck. He will make an excellent AM. Far better than that fame seeking, cash for questions candidate from that English nationalist party.

My police and crime commissioner vote will go to the Plaid Candidate.
The current holder has made some serious errors and it is time for change here.

zoe said...

i havent seen one candidate yet but my vote will be a protest vote given to jane dodds because russell has spent too much time time chasing windmills instead of focusing on important things such as these awful threats of school closures here in llanidloes and elsewhere plus health services. i cannot trust the torys on health as look at what is happening in england with junior doctors and i dont want schools to become academies like they want to do in england. i find the other votes confusing because the one with the most votes doesnt win. maybe it's all tactical so can someone explain.

RedMaggs said...

I would never vote for a Conservative ever - this is what they are doing in the UK and and such I would feel that it is a vote for the rich not for the other 99% of the country

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/esa-wrag-disability-benefit-cut-disabled-mps-vote-tories-iain-duncan-smith-a6918556.html

Mrchrisalf2004 said...

I predict Labour will lose 6 constituency seats (including Cardiff Central where i live and, fingers crossed, Vale of Glamorgan where i work). I have a postal vote for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. Angela Burns has done a good job but if Tory list members are guaranteed, Dr Chris Overton the Save Withybush Hospital candidate might well be worth voting for. I do voluntary work in the Heath and when i return to visit Pembrokeshire i find the hospital service (nurses and ambulance paramedics in particular) to be sub standard and generally incompetent. Hywel Dda, thanks to Jane Hutt and Brian Gibbons, have destroyed West Wales health care with their health board administrative tampering. Drakeford, as i do, thinks travelling from Barry to Heath is no problem, but Angle, Stackpole or Castlemartin to Glangwilli is a lot more of a complex journey; one a dying person won't enjoy.

R n B said...

My son-in-law lives in Amsterdam and his perspective on Dutch politics is interesting. They have Proportional Representation with a large number of parties so their Government is made up with a broad swathe of parties working in coalition. This brings significant stability, surprisingly perhaps. One of the greatest benefits that I see is a massive reduction in the crazy swing that put me off our political system when I was young - I would see the Left come to the fore and busily undo everything that the Right had done. Then the situation would reverse. When the LibDems went into coalition with Conservatives I felt a ray of hope. That was soon dashed when election promises went out of the window.
Seeing the current Labour incumbents in Cardiff finding large sums of money for the purchase of a failing airport but not having the money to sensibly fund one of our most important services, the NHS, leaves me very despondent.