The Assembly Election.

Not many people are fully engaged with the Welsh Assembly elections being held two weeks on Thursday. UK politics being dominated by the EU Referendum. As expected. Which is why I was so disappointed the Referendum is being held on June 23rd rather that later in the year. Though I can understand why the Prime Minister did it and wants it behind him. But I'm engaged with the Assembly Election - which is one reason why, on principle, I'm not telling anyone which way I will vote on June 23rd until after May 5th.

I am giving my full support to Russell George in the election to choose a Montgomeryshire representative in our National Assembly for the next five years. Over the last five years, Russell has worked hard for us, and fully deserves to be re-elected. It's no surprise that there is great enthusiasm amongst local campaigners to knock on doors for him. The campaign is going very well. We are also supporting Chris Salmon in his campaign to seek re-election as Police and Crime Commissioner for Dyfed/Powys. Chris has also worked conscientiously and deserves another term.

But how is it going at a national level. Not been the best of recent weeks for Conservatives across UK. No good pretending otherwise. Been turbulence at Westminster on several fronts.  And the referendum divisions seem more pronounced in my party. UK sovereignty is an issue we really care about. I also think the Referendum is giving UKIP a public awareness boost. Most polls suggest UKIP will take 5 Assembly seats, all 'regional list' seats. While none of this is helpful to my party's cause, I still think the Welsh Conservatives will have a successful election.

So what's going to happen in 18 days time? Not much doubt but that Labout will lose it's overall majority in Cardiff Bay - despite the helpful noises and squabbling down the other end of the M4. Can't see Plaid going into full coalition, even if the numbers may make that the obvious option.  But could be some sort of confidence and supply deal I suppose. But my guess is Labour will try to run a minority Government if it can - depending on the results of course. Polls are sometimes wrong!! I'm hopeful that the Welsh Conservatives will hold off the Plaid challenge to be the official opposition. Andrew RT and his team have done that rather well. Too much of an unknown to know what any UKIP AMs will do. Oh, and I reckon Gary Price is in with a really good chance in Brecon and Radnorshire. And maybe the mood music will change over the next two weeks!