Monday, August 17, 2015

British Politics - three pronged madness.

Was relaxing with a glass of wine tonight, contemplating British politics. How mad and sad is that? Well, it's  not as mad as the politics I'm mad to be thinking about. I got to be thinking about  what are the most mad happenings of recent years. Here's my top three contenders.

In third place I put the demise of the Liberal Democrats. If I had been in discussion with David Dimbleby  at 10.00pm on election night, I too would have offered to eat my hat if the exit poll, just published, were to be correct. The prediction that the Lib Dems would drop to 10 seats was idiotic. Turned out to be  an over-estimate! They won just 8 seats. Truly astonishing.

In second place I put the transformation of Scottish politics. How on earth did the SNP win 56 out of 59 Scottish seats in the General Election. Such things do not happen. But it did happen. My old Labour mate on the Gardening APPG, Brian Donahoe went into the election with a massive majority, and lost with a massive deficit. Not seen anything like it before. Surely nothing could top this.

But the election of a Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Labour Party would top everything. Labour are electing the leader of Her Majesty's Opposition, the person who will debate with David Cameron at the Despatch Box, their leader at the 2020 election. And it very much looks as if the Labour membership are going to elect Jeremy Corbyn. I'm tempted to say I'll eat my (marzipan) hat if he wins. But he is the favorite. It looks to me as if the Labour Party has completely lost it's marbles.

None of these will last of course. The Lib Dems will recover, the SNP will fall back and Jeremy Corbyn would crash and burn well before 2020. I could be lining up marzipan hats to eat.
And who would have thought that the emergence of Ukip would not make my top three. I do think UKIP will perform quite well in the Welsh Assembly elections, but will wither like an unwatered tomato plant after the EU referendum. If they win more than one seat in 2020 that's another hat to eat!

1 comment:

Donovan950 said...

Yes, they are three unlikely scenarios in any year and all at once is as you say going through a mad patch.
That said the last time the Liberals went into govt was in the mid 70s and they took a while to recover losing Thorpe and Hooson in 1979.

The SNP swing can be explained by 45% voting Yes (Not All SNP) in the independence election and then those voters having an affinity for the SNP. One might argue this could be calculated genius by one of the PM's advisors when the independence election was agreed; I don't think there's evidence for this.

Finally Corbyn, well maybe offering his brand of politics to the people is exactly what is required going forward. As long as he is given a fair chance to deliver his message and is not hijacked by the Tory press, then the people can try or reject his kind of politics. If it is rejected, then the Labour party could swing back to its Blairite stand.