Saturday, November 28, 2009
Reflection on the Iraq War.
There's another story arising from the Iraq war in the newspapers this week - the Chilcot Inquiry. Already, I find some of the witness statements to be deeply shocking. I supported the then Prime Minister, Tony Blair in his decision to take Britain to war. There were two main reasons. Firstly, I accepted his word that Saddam Hussein possessed what were referred to as 'weapons of mass destruction', and that he could, and intended to use them against our country. And secondly, because I did not settle on a firm opinion until it was clear we were actually going to war, I wanted our young soldiers to feel confident that they had my full support, as they were putting their lives at risk on my behalf. I saw my support for the British Prime Minister's decision as the pursuit of national security, and as loyalty to our armed forces. I would not have supported going to war to achieve 'regime change'.
This week we have been told that for many months before going to war, Tony Blair kept secret from us that he had agreed to join President George Bush in his mission to achieve 'regime change', and that the Prime Minister's claims about weapons of mass destruction were exaggerated (at best) or downright untruthful (at worst). I cannot believe that a British Prime Minister would behave in such a way. And I cannot believe that Gordon Brown, our current Prime Minister was not fully aware of this mendacity. How in God's name can we expect the people of our country to have respect for the institution of Parliament, when its integrity was so shockingly abused. How can anyone have respect for these seriously tarnished individuals ever again.
Friday, November 27, 2009
The Referendum Timetable.
Let us work backwards. While holding the referendum in spring 2011, or even on the same date as the Assembly Election is possible, the reality is that advice from the Electoral Commission, and other political considerations rule this out. I also believe that late November/December 2010 would not be considered acceptable because a referendum so late in the year would increase uncertainty because of the danger of a low turn out. So we are looking at a last possible date of early November. If there is to be a reasonable campaign period, (say 7-10 weeks) it follows that the Order in Council relating to the referendum must have been made before the summer recess, which usually stretches from mid July to early October.
Now we come to the less predictable aspects of the timetable. All we know for certain is that the 'maximum' gap between the trigger vote in the National Assembly (where 40 AMs recommend that the First Minister informs the Secretary of State of the Assembly's decision), and the date by which a Draft Order must be laid is 120 days - 4 months. It could be less, but there's so much to do that I can't see it being much. Because a General Election is likely to be held in early May, it is impossible that this process can be completed before it - except in the unlikely event of AMs holding the definitive debate next week!! So the only practical way the Coalition's agreed timetable (a pre Assembly Election refererendum) can be adhered to is if the new Secretary of State , appointed in mid May, gives top priority to this issue, resolving all the necessary questions in the 8 weeks before summer recess. This is a very demanding timetable and dependent on the trigger vote taking place in mid January. Every week that the trigger vote is delayed is one week less for the incoming Secretary of State to manage the process of translating the Draft Order into the Order in Council which would enable the referendum to take place, a process that involves weeks of consultations and votes in both Houses of Parliament and the National Assembly. And all at a time when there will be a huge focus on repairing the nation's finances. I hope you are still with me - and not too depressed.
Three reasons for this 'explanatory' post. Firstly, to inject realism into the debate; secondly, to demonstrate just what the Welsh Labour Party were up to last week (trying to scupper the whole thing); and thirdly to create an opportunity for readers to challenge or correct my thoughts on the issue.
An Evening with Montgomeryshire farmers.
After an excellent meeting, Richard was asked to give a vote of thanks. I should have sussed it when he walked to the front and stood by my side to deliver his speech. He told us that he'd telephoned a farming friend from Devon this morning, and asked how things were going, only to be told that an awful tragedy had befallen his friend's cowman since they had last spoken. A few weeks ago the cowman had slipped while using his chainsaw, and sawn off his arm. Then, a few days later his vacuum slurry wagon had malfunctioned and his by now one-armed cowman stuck his head up the suction inlet to find the fault - only for it to spring into action and suck his eye out and his ear off. When his cowman finally managed to extract his head, now minus an eye an an ear, he was knocked over by a tractor which happened to be passing - mainly because he failed to hear or see it. Since he had no arm to save himself, he slipped into the slurry pit, and disappeared under the s***. By the time the fire service had pulled him out, and the ambulance arrived, the paramedic declared him to be brain dead. Richard's friend was bemoaning his bad luck, because his previously excellent cowman (and they are hard to find) had accepted that he would never again be able to do anything remotely useful - so was now standing for election as an MP. It went down particularly well because Richard can deliver lines with a fine Devonian accent.
Dai Davies, who has done such a sterling job as President of NFU Cymru for the last four years was in Montgomeryshire for his final visit while in office, and his successor, Ed Bailey was there as well. First time I've heard Ed speak, and for an unfailingly polite man, gave Rory a bit of stick - good natured but sharp enough to encourage the entire audience that we've found another good man. Great night for me, catching up on developments in Welsh agri-politics. Luckily, I can still understand what Rory is saying, even when he drops into delphic mode - the intention being to bamboozle us because he's been asked something that the Minister would prefer him not to answer.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Labour thrashing around - dodging a decision.
The horrible reality is sinking in. Welsh Labour knows that if a referendum is asked for, it will not be vetoed by a Conservative Government. Welsh Labour knows that the only time a referendum can now be held is Sept/Oct 2010. Welsh Labour knows that for this to be possible, a definitive decision to ask for a referendum must be taken before the General Election. Unfortunately for Labour, Plaid Cymru activists know it as well. If the decisive debate does not take place, the Coalition will fall. Labour tried it on today with this 'statement', which collapsed before the afternoon was out. Betsan reports on the climb down here. Carwyn Jones, if he wins, is going to have to face down his MPs or lead a minority government. The marlin will surely make another bid to escape - but it will not succeed. After a boring spell, Welsh politics is fascinating again.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Not 'Getting it'.
So what do the Montgomeryshire Lib Dems and Mr Opik do? It takes your breath away. Just before the Communications Allowance is banned, they rush out a glossy leaflet, paid for by this very same allowance ( all taxpayer's money) and post it (the postage paid for by the taxpayer) to voters in Montgomeryshire. My copy was delivered to me by my postman this morning. Never seen a more cynical 'milking of the system' in my life - demonstrating a level of 'not getting it' that deserves wider attention.
And it gets worse. They've put a photograph which includes myself on the front of it. Now I'm not sure what the reason was for this, but it means that the Communications Allowance (which I have always said is so offensive to democracy that I would never touch it) has been used to promote me. On one level, I find this to be appalling, but on another, the sheer effrontery of it is quite funny. I wonder what Nick Clegg thinks of this. The poor man must be in despair.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
The Hillbillies
This lady's name is Linda Rowe, and she lives in the village of Kerry, in Montgomeryshire. She is the lead singer with The Hillbillies, and as well as having a strong voice, has strong opinions - especially in respect of the damage that wind turbines and associated power cables inflict on the landscape. I'd not met Linda until this weekend, but when she told me her name, I remembered that I'd been email lobbied by her about the new 32 kv power cable which is to built near Kerry to carry power from the proposed replacement wind farm at Llandinam to the National Grid. Didn't speak to her for long, but got the feeling that she's not one to be tangled with. But its admiration rather than fear that has instigated this post, which is meant to be considered as a promotion of the Hillbillies.
Last night's do was the 'Shire' Chairman's Dinner. The background to this annual event needs explanation. In 1994, the then Conservative Government did a terrible thing. It tried to wipe the county of Montgomeryshire off the map - merging it with Radnorshire and Breconshire to form the new County of Powys. This Powys is a ridiculous construct, which councillors have no choice but try to make some sense of. Its not to be confused with the old Powis, which took in Montgomeryshire, and parts of Meirionydd and the old Denbighshire, an area which marches well together , and made more sense. Many Montgomeryshire people have never accepted this 'constitutional crime' (including moi). Several Powys County Councillors have not accepted it either, and a 'Shire' Committee continues to meet in Montgomeryshire on a regular basis. This year's Chair of the 'Shire' Committee is Councillor Roche Davies, who represents Llandinam. He is a good friend of mine, which led to my being invited to his Annual Dinner. (And before you hair shirt types comment, we all paid for our tickets). A good time was had by all, and The Hillbillies played their part.
Friday, November 20, 2009
What's to be the Question
It was the 'Broughton Statement' that turned Welsh politics on its head. Where are we now? The Conservative Party (in Wales and Westminster) is entirely comfortable allowing individuals to campaign for either a 'Yes' or a 'No'. So no problem. Its unusual, but long anticipated and accepted. But what about the others. The Plaid leadership resembles a horse eyeing up 'The Wall' in a Puissance competition - while the entire Labour Party resemble a herd of rabbits trapped in a giant searchlight. They were assuming that a Conservative Government would veto any request for a referendum before 2011. Just watch for the myriad of reasons that will be trotted out about why the referendum should,be delayed until after 2011. You can imagine the sort of thing. In private they'll be saying "What the h*** do we do now". In public it will be "Leave it until a Yes vote is certain". Well, in my opinion, its never going to be certain. For two years, the Coalition partners have faffed around, hoping that eventually, Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act would just be there for the taking, like a low-hanging fruit. In my opinion, there will be no Yes vote without a fight - nor should there be. No persuasive case. We stay on the ELCO slow train.
And then, what is the question on the referendum paper going to be. Simple is best, but 'simple' I can't come up with. What about "Do you support progressing to Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006, which entails vesting in the National Assembly for Wales, law making powers in those areas currently devolved?" OK, laugh if you must - but come up with something better.
"Ouch"
This report brought back to me one of the most barbaric practices I've ever been involved in. It was when I was quite young. We bred and reared pigs as part of the farm business. When the male piglets reached a certain age their testicles became sufficiently prominent to enable removal. Warning - the next sentence may make your eyes water. My job was to catch the piglets and dangle them in the air, holding them up by their hind legs. My father then cut open the sack, gripped the contents, and sliced off the little pink testicles with a razor blade. No anaesthetic. I remember our sheepdog (unoriginality named Pup) eating them voraciously. In fact Pup usually caught them after they had been tossed up in the air. I can do the same thing with peanuts and quail's eggs. Pup lived to be very old. Not sure what lessons are to be learned from this fact. Piglets can be very noisy at the best of times, but they were exceptionally so as this was procedure was taking place. I don't know how widespread this barbaric practice is today, but something like it is taking place in Belgium at least. Could this be why farmers are thought to be uncomfortable about having vasectomies?
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Post early for Xmas
A policy which hurts the most vulnerable.
No-one disputes that social care policy needs reform - and there are several aspects to the debate. Its unfair that everyone who has been thrifty and responsible all of their lives, and saved money have to pay for their own care - while everyone who have saved nothing at all (for all sorts of reasons) have social care provided free of charge. Also, there needs to be more investment in enabling the moderately disabled elderly to stay in their own homes. And there needs to be greater provision of residential places for the most severely disabled who would benefit from this greater level of care. Finally, there needs to a recognition that dementia is a 'physical' disease, involving physical damage to the brain, rather than a form of mental illness. There's a lot else as well. Tackling these issues is not straight forward because of the massive cost implications. There's a lot of thought being put into policy reform, both at Westminster and in the National Assembly.
Yesterday's Queen's Speech proposes that a part of the NHS budget in England be used to support the most frail elderly in their own homes. Superficially attractive - and completely bonkers. Just listen to authoritative Labour Peer, Lord Lipsey rip the proposal to shreds. It will take money from social care for those who would benefit from home care - in order to spend on social care for those who would not. My interest in this issue extends to england as well as Wales. The new digital TV was lucky to survive not having my fist through it last night, as I watched the increasingly oleaginous Ben Bradshaw on Newsnight, trying to justify the Government's poisonous proposal. It was nothing more than a political gimmick, the price of which will have to paid by the most frail elderly in pain and suffering. On its own, this proposal is good enough reason to remove Gordon Brown from office.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Centenary of a Village School
The Report of the All Wales Convention.
The 'conclusion'. - "We are convinced that Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (an Assembly with law making powers) offers substantial advantages over the present arrangements in Part 3. It would offer greater efficiency, permit a strategic approach to the drafting of legislation, provide greater clarity, be more consistent with the rule of law and democratic tradition, and reflect the emerging maturity of the assembly. This appears to be a view shared by the majority of the Welsh people." I agree with his every word.
So where now? There will be a formal 'Statement' from the outgoing First Minister, before he 'goes out'. There could be a bit of knockabout when Peter Hain presents the Queen's Speech to AMs next week - assuming he comes out of hiding by then. But Peter's too cute to be embarrassed - and most AMs won't see the point in doing so anyway. All this is 'going through the motions stuff'. The big step, (that's the one that's been avoided for as long as possible) will be the debate on the floor of the Assembly. And I mean a decisive debate, tabled by the Coalition Government, proposing that the UK Government be asked to hold a referendum of the Welsh people to decide whether we should move to Part 4 of the 2006 Act. I've been 'chewing over' whether it would be sensible for an opposition party to use a 'Minority Debate', if there is no promise of an early Government debate. It would certainly cause political chaos, especially for Plaid Cymru. But its our constitution we're talking about here, and that's not a subject for political opportunism. It should be done properly. It could easily be that Labour will not support a decisive debate before the General Election, and it may well be that Plaid Cymru will accommodate this desire. This is not crucial.
But what if there is no 'decisive' debate by June, a date helpfully provided by Sir Emyr today? The Coalition Government must fall. Labour would have to limp on until the next Assembly election as a 'minority' Government, unless the Lib Dems stepped into the breach again. Labour's breach of trust would become Ieuan's new fig leaf. Whatever, following David Cameron's announcement last week that a Conservative Government at Westminster would not veto a referendum, I reckon that there will probably be a referendum in October. Another reason why I really really REALLY do want to be elected as the MP for Montgomeryshire.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Tomorrow's another day.
But wait. Sir Emyr Jones Parry is speaking tomorrow. He's going to tell Rhodri Morgan that he believes the time is right for Assembly Members to ask the UK Parliament to hold a referendum on granting full law making powers to the National Assembly in all devolved policy areas. He might even suggest one or two further policy areas should be devolved, though I hope he doesn't confuse the two principles. Any referendum question will be difficult enough to explain as it is. I suppose there will be a 'Statement' from the First Minister next week, and I guess a debate in the New Year. Though I hear whispers that the Lib Dems might use 'Minority debate' time before Xmas. Never ones to miss the chance for a gimmick. Whatever, the proper debate should be fun - now that David Cameron has said that any request for a referendum will not be vetoed by a Conservative Government. Nick Bourne must be salivating at the prospect. Funny how just writing a post can help the mists of depression to lift.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Damaging row over the Welsh Language
I have to admit that Edwina doesn't help herself by comparing the Welsh Language with Bengali or Chinese. What on earth was she thinking when she said that? When I was a young man, there was much division in Wales about the language. It was all deeply unpleasant, and reflected very badly on Wales. A few hotheads even set fire to houses of non-Welsh speakers. But over the years, wiser heads prevailed, and depoliticised the debate. They realised that if the language was to prosper, it needed the support of those who did not speak it, as well as those who did. Eventually, the now Lord Roberts of Conwy secured a successful future for the Welsh Language by means of adaption of the 1988 Education Reform Act to encompass the linguistic distinctiveness of Wales. It became part of the National Curriculum in Wales. This was the single most important development in the long battle which halted and then reversed the seemingly inevitable decline of Welsh.
Edwina's honesty sometimes gets her into trouble. She could so easily have said that she was going to learn, and arrange to have a few lessons. I know plenty of people who have done that, and then pretended that they can speak Welsh - when they can't. That's not Edwina Hart's style, and its to her credit. We do not want to see the future our Language being put at risk by stoking up an unnecessary row - if its all right with you Mrs Williams.
Abuse of the Elderly
UPDATE - The photograph which I hated has now disappeared as news moves on. But the general point remains.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
A Midnight Walk.
Lack of Respect.
'two Welsh politicians who were barracked by war veterans when they continued to loudly hold an unrelated conversation during a remembrance procession through their constituency last week? A British Legion veteran felt forced to yell at them, telling the pair "You're walking around like you're in Asda and you just carried on talking"! When one of the politicians attempted to reply, the elderly man shouted "Shut your bl***y mouth - just for once in your life and listen to someone else, and you may just learn something." The politician was left shaking, while the colleague was left to placate the veterans..'.
Please note that blame for the awful 'split infinitive' rests entirely with Spin Doctor. Not sure why there should be such coyness about naming the individuals concerned. I was told about this incident soon after it happened (though not the actual words supposedly used) - which was during the remembrance procession in Newtown, in Montgomeryshire. I'm told there were 300 people on the street at the time. I'd accepted an invitation to join the procession in Welshpool, or I might have witnessed the incident myself. I'd concluded that the story damaged the dignity of Remembrance Sunday, and had not repeated it to anyone - so I must admit to being a tad surprised to see it appearing in the WoS. I'm not going to allow any names to appear in comments.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Should 'Policing' be devolved?
A few years ago, I was asked to explain myself to our group leader in the Assembly after being quoted in the Western Mail as 'not being personally opposed to devolving policing to the Assembly". Actually, it was no more than a casual conversation, but there had been complaints. I wonder whether these comments by Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Grayling have caused any similar ripples. They shouldn't - because what he's quoted as saying in very sensible, and the same as I've always thought.
The principle that matters here is how policing can most effectively be carried out. I would take a lot of convincing that total devolution would be sensible. As crime and terrorism have become more international and sophisticated, effective liaison across international borders becomes more important. There will be an important continuing role for the Home Office. But a lot of policing issues could perhaps be better delivered by the National Assembly. All other emergency services are already devolved. Chris Grayling is right to take the pragmatic approach.
This last week has been a very good week for those of us who believe the Conservative Party should become the party of effective devolution - driven by a commitment to a stable British constitution. One aspect of my conservatism is about allowing decisions to be taken at the nearest level to the community as is practical. Seems to me its just common sense. Its all very encouraging.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Peeing for Britain.
Rosemary Hooper, of the Wimpole Estate is particularly enthusiastic about this practice. She has the job of 'master composter' and is encouraging the 20 male staff she works with to use the 'pee bales'. She is even inviting visitors to the gardens to join in. After a certain length of time , the 'pee bales' are added to the compost heap. Now, Rosemary is encouraging staff and visitors to "cut out the middle man" and pee straight onto the compost heap. It could even become a group activity - like when the bus stops on the side of the road on the way home from a rugby international. She says "Peeing on the compost heap activates the composting process, helping to produce a ready supply of lovely organic matter to add to add back to the garden. Adding a little pee just helps to get it all going. Its totally safe and a bit of fun too." I suppose it could become a Xmas party game!
And its not just men. I read that Baroness Young, whom I dined with last week in the House of Commons freely admits to peeing on the compost heap. And it seems that Cameron Diaz pees in the shower. I realise that there is absolutely no reason why not - but this news has shaken me to my roots.
I'm sure there will be many of the more genteel members of polite society who will frown on all this. But if it were to be widely adopted, it would save between four and nine litres of water at every stop. It could save the planet if everyone did it. Now none of this is at all noteworthy to the farming community. What do you do if you are ploughing a field a mile from the nearest relief station, or combining non-stop for 24 hours? Just think about it. And The National Trust is backing this new trend. Wonder if it will make it to any of the political party's manifestos.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Posing with a champion.
This bull's name is Pedr Dougal and he is 16 months old. His sire's name is Brelack Tycoon, and his dam's name is Pedr Rhonwen. He was bred by Peter Howells of Llanybydder. Today he broke all records at Welshpool by attracting a bid of 8,300 guineas. He went to the noted Montgomeryshire producer, Ashtons of Belanddu. Although I'm wearing a suit, handling a bull is not an unusual experience for me. Until I sold my suckler herd around ten years ago, I always owned two bulls, or hired them in from today's judge.
Handling these creatures is not a job to be treated lightly. Just ask David Dimbleby. When the French Charolais was first imported into this country, the bulls were often a bit frisky - and not only when aroused by a cow or heifer in season. By today, this nasty streak has been largely bred out of them, and the Charolais is generally a gentle creature - for someone who knows what he or she is doing.