Main reason that I try to avoid party conferences is that I don't enjoy them. I never have. When the Conservative Party was lagging behind in the polls, I felt a responsibility to turn up. So I made the sacrifice. But now that more people want to attend our annual do than watch Man U play Chelsea, and there would be dozens of potential 'interviewees' for every media 'op', I decided that I wouldn't be missed. So I've been engaged in a few days research into Welsh-Spanish cultural relations, and a meeting of the Welsh Advisory Board of EuropeanCare Cymru (which I chair) in Swansea. Of which more later.
But I wish I'd been in Birmingham yesterday to hear Terry Pratchett speak. Mr Pratchett is the 60 years old, politically unaligned, best selling author who is suffering from Alzheimer's Disease. Since he joined the 700,000 or so people who have been diagnosed with this illness last year, he has done wonderful work raising the profile of Alzheimer's, as well as donating a big chunk of his personal wealth to research. I would have liked to have been there to applaud his courage and generosity. If I'd known he was going to be there, before I committed to my Board Meeting, I would have 'bitten the bullet' and gone to the Conference instead.
And now a word of thanks to Lord Mayor of Swansea, Coucillor Gareth Sullivan, and to Mrs Gwenda Thomas A.M.. EuropeanCare sponsors a 'not for profit' body named RESEC - or Research into Specialist Elderly Care. We are putting effort and resource into doing what Terry Pratchett was doing in Birmingham today. Last night, the Lord Mayor hosted a reception for RESEC in the Mansion House, and Mrs Gwenda Thomas, Deputy Minister who is responsible for this area of policy within the Assembly Government agreed to attend and speak. Although I didn't make it in time from Liverpool Airport to here her speak, I did make it in time to meet and thank her. She is a star.
Among the issues at today's Board Meeting were the way that EuropeanCare Cymru might introduce an 'advocacy' scheme for vulnerable people, and the way our recently introduced 'lay visitors scheme' is working. Really good and constructive meeting, exactly the sort of meeting which I would expect Terry Pratchett to approve of.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
The reason why.
Over the last two days I, along with many others have been wondering why the people of the United States have seemed more inclined to punish Wall Street financiers than save their own pensions. Well this little synopsis of the collapse of Leaman Brothers reported on page 7 of today's Telegraph provides some inkling of the answer.
Bank goes bust. Shareholders get wiped out. Creditors stand to lose more than $100,000,000,000. Bankruptcy causes further crisis of confidence in entire banking system, requiring $700,000,000,000 bail-out funded by taxpayers. Employees get $3,500,000,000 bonuses
Only change I've made in to write in all the noughts - because the word 'billion' has become so devalued over recent days. And I wasn't sure whether 'bail-out' is spelt correctly.
Bank goes bust. Shareholders get wiped out. Creditors stand to lose more than $100,000,000,000. Bankruptcy causes further crisis of confidence in entire banking system, requiring $700,000,000,000 bail-out funded by taxpayers. Employees get $3,500,000,000 bonuses
Only change I've made in to write in all the noughts - because the word 'billion' has become so devalued over recent days. And I wasn't sure whether 'bail-out' is spelt correctly.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Back home - sort of.
Only just recovered from the shock. I've just typed in 'bloigger.com' in error, and up came Adult Friend Finder - a site featuring 24 photographs of very well blessed young ladies in provocative pose. I was quite taken aback. The shock was all the greater because I'm so tired, having left El Rompido Golf at 6.00 this morning for Faro, then Liverpool, and finally Swansea for a reception and dinner tonight. Managed, after a bit of difficulty to get this flashy new laptop operating in the Ramada Hotel. Its No 1 son, Edward's computer. I hope he doesn't think I've been visiting dodgy sites on purpose.
Really enjoyed my week off. Played 18 holes every day. The North Course at El Rompido Golf is a great test. Its such a good course that the management won't allow buggies on it after rain. And it rained on the last two days. The par 5s average 550 yards. And managed to read a fair bit as well - a really nice World War 2 love story by H E Bates about an English pilot from Worcester being shot down over France, and falling in love with a French girl, and they both escape over the border into Spain. OK, you can stop sneering. I have a romantic side, and I really enjoyed it. And a pacey thriller by Val McDermid called Beneath the Bleeding. Tonight, it will have to be the papers for tomorrow's meeting of European Care Cymru in the Ramada. Welcome home. Will be able to catch up on what's been happening in the world tomorrow - and at Birmingham
Speaking of Spain, I should mention cycling, which is a big big sport there. I imagine that the continuing achievements of the amazing Nicole Cooke are receiving more coverage and plaudits in Spain than here in the UK. Following on from her brilliant gold medal at Beijing, she has just won the World Championship road race, outlasting the Dutch girl, Vos to snatch victory after 3 hours in the saddle. She is simply brilliant. Possibly the biggest loss of 'perk' resulting from loss of my position as an Assembly Member last year is that I wasn't invited to meet this wonderful ambassador for Wales when the Olympic winners were invited to the Assembly.
I've missed updating the blog over the last few days, and there are so many issues I'd like to post on. I
Really enjoyed my week off. Played 18 holes every day. The North Course at El Rompido Golf is a great test. Its such a good course that the management won't allow buggies on it after rain. And it rained on the last two days. The par 5s average 550 yards. And managed to read a fair bit as well - a really nice World War 2 love story by H E Bates about an English pilot from Worcester being shot down over France, and falling in love with a French girl, and they both escape over the border into Spain. OK, you can stop sneering. I have a romantic side, and I really enjoyed it. And a pacey thriller by Val McDermid called Beneath the Bleeding. Tonight, it will have to be the papers for tomorrow's meeting of European Care Cymru in the Ramada. Welcome home. Will be able to catch up on what's been happening in the world tomorrow - and at Birmingham
Speaking of Spain, I should mention cycling, which is a big big sport there. I imagine that the continuing achievements of the amazing Nicole Cooke are receiving more coverage and plaudits in Spain than here in the UK. Following on from her brilliant gold medal at Beijing, she has just won the World Championship road race, outlasting the Dutch girl, Vos to snatch victory after 3 hours in the saddle. She is simply brilliant. Possibly the biggest loss of 'perk' resulting from loss of my position as an Assembly Member last year is that I wasn't invited to meet this wonderful ambassador for Wales when the Olympic winners were invited to the Assembly.
I've missed updating the blog over the last few days, and there are so many issues I'd like to post on. I
Friday, September 26, 2008
Spanish Report - No 3. A ray of 'sunshine'.
After four days hacking my way around the South course at El Rompido Golf, we're intent on tackling the less forgiving North Course this afternoon. In order to acquire the right degree of relaxation and mansuetude, I've bought yesterday's Telegraph, in search of something to blog about.
Much interested in the article about the UK Government's decision to sell our nuclear generation capacity to the French private sector. Oh, the irony of it. I wonder what assurances have been given about delivering speedy planning approvals. The dependence on French capitalists to fill our 'energy gap' is a direct consequence of the failure of the UK Government to face up to difficult decisions until its too late.
In another article we read of the same sort of failure in respect of how we are going to deal with waste. Some years ago, I came to the decision that there needed to be huge investment in incineration. A few years ago I used my annual 'overseas trip' allowance when I was an Assembly Member to go to Vienna, where all waste is incinerated - within the city. No-one bats an eyelid. But as with nuclear, the nettle will not be grasped until panic sets in. Perhaps it will be foreign capitalists that will come to our rescue again. Its all a bit like credit cards. If you spend the money, use the energy, create the waste, the bill will eventually have to be paid.
Anyway, the article that caught my eye most was in the business section - Laura Ashley reporting its half year profits - £4.5 million. This may not sound much, but its pretty damn good for LA. The shares increased by 24% to 18p. I remember when the shares where heading for 300p, and the company was taking over the world. Laura Ashley, will forever be associated with the little village of Carno, in the heart of Montgomeryshire, where the fairy story began. It was a very sad for the village when the factory was closed. Lying there, empty and desolated, it remains a constant reminder of good times gone. But LA is still hugely important to Montgomeryshire, with its huge Texplan opereation and mail order business located in Newtown. The sun is shining here in Spain. The financial gloom is something I observe in a detached sort of way on the television. Within this gloom its nice to read about a ray of business sunshine beaming down on Montgomeryshire.
Much interested in the article about the UK Government's decision to sell our nuclear generation capacity to the French private sector. Oh, the irony of it. I wonder what assurances have been given about delivering speedy planning approvals. The dependence on French capitalists to fill our 'energy gap' is a direct consequence of the failure of the UK Government to face up to difficult decisions until its too late.
In another article we read of the same sort of failure in respect of how we are going to deal with waste. Some years ago, I came to the decision that there needed to be huge investment in incineration. A few years ago I used my annual 'overseas trip' allowance when I was an Assembly Member to go to Vienna, where all waste is incinerated - within the city. No-one bats an eyelid. But as with nuclear, the nettle will not be grasped until panic sets in. Perhaps it will be foreign capitalists that will come to our rescue again. Its all a bit like credit cards. If you spend the money, use the energy, create the waste, the bill will eventually have to be paid.
Anyway, the article that caught my eye most was in the business section - Laura Ashley reporting its half year profits - £4.5 million. This may not sound much, but its pretty damn good for LA. The shares increased by 24% to 18p. I remember when the shares where heading for 300p, and the company was taking over the world. Laura Ashley, will forever be associated with the little village of Carno, in the heart of Montgomeryshire, where the fairy story began. It was a very sad for the village when the factory was closed. Lying there, empty and desolated, it remains a constant reminder of good times gone. But LA is still hugely important to Montgomeryshire, with its huge Texplan opereation and mail order business located in Newtown. The sun is shining here in Spain. The financial gloom is something I observe in a detached sort of way on the television. Within this gloom its nice to read about a ray of business sunshine beaming down on Montgomeryshire.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
When does embranglement become unacceptable?
I just think that this should appear on my blog. Its amusing, as well as informative. Its also interesting that serving as Housing Spokesman for England leads to an impossible level of embranglement with a 'Presidential' campaign, while representing Montgomeryshire and appearing on multiple media celebrity programmes is not embranglement too far.
Spanish report 2 - Its not going to happen John.
Another 18 holes on the South Course today. Its laid out around a nature reserve, which claims many a wayward ball, including three of mine. We watched a flock of 30 Little Egrets today, just pottering about on the course - something I've not seen before. Spent all morning reading an H E Bates book by the side of the pool. Luckily, the Spanish seem to disappear from view about seven, and there's no point going out to eat until half past nine - so I have time to check up on the various blogs that I like to read. Valleys Mam has written a good post on Ruth Kelly, who resigned this morning because she could no longer work for Gordon Brown, or was it to spend more time with her family.
I've just visited the Institute of Welsh Affairs site. I've always thought that John Osmond has combined his twin roles as Director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs and Plaid Cymru activist rather well. But I think his green petticoat is showing with this post. The only political party I've heard argue for a referendum on law making powers for the National Assembly to be held on the same day as the election to that Assembly is Plaid Cymru. Its not going to happen. Move on John. Spend a bit more time talking to politicians from other parties.
And been reading all this stuff about Gordon Brown making a good speech in Manchester. What on earth did anyone expect? His entire 'bunker' team have been working on it for weeks. It won't make a blind bit of difference. If Labour lose the November by-election, the calls for him to go will grow louder. I really feel that the British people have lost faith in him and he will not lead Labour into the next Election. No amount of public money distributed as freebies, or rewriting of previous speeches will change anything. He could still be gone by Xmas, and there will be a General Election before June. I can see that from Spain.
I've just visited the Institute of Welsh Affairs site. I've always thought that John Osmond has combined his twin roles as Director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs and Plaid Cymru activist rather well. But I think his green petticoat is showing with this post. The only political party I've heard argue for a referendum on law making powers for the National Assembly to be held on the same day as the election to that Assembly is Plaid Cymru. Its not going to happen. Move on John. Spend a bit more time talking to politicians from other parties.
And been reading all this stuff about Gordon Brown making a good speech in Manchester. What on earth did anyone expect? His entire 'bunker' team have been working on it for weeks. It won't make a blind bit of difference. If Labour lose the November by-election, the calls for him to go will grow louder. I really feel that the British people have lost faith in him and he will not lead Labour into the next Election. No amount of public money distributed as freebies, or rewriting of previous speeches will change anything. He could still be gone by Xmas, and there will be a General Election before June. I can see that from Spain.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Spanish Report 1 - Demise of the Referendum
In Spain, and I have internet access. No 1 son, Edward has been on to protest about the casual reference in my last post to the 'spare laptop' he's given me. It seems that its his best personal top-of-the-range ultra-light model, which cost north of a £1,000. Anyway, there's a connection point in our hotel room at the El Rompido Golf Resort, and I've just been catching up on what's happening back home. We've played the South Course today, and now waiting for a taxi at 9, to go out for dinner. So time for a quick post.
Most interesting story since I left on Monday morning has been the opinion poll carried out by the Institute of Welsh Politics at Aberystwyth, on behalf of the National Assembly Commission about where devolution should go from here. Its based on a survey of 2,500 people, carried out during June/July. Its results make bleak reading for those who are calling for a referendum on whether law making powers should be granted to the Assembly. It finds that 10% want an independent Wales, 39% want an Assembly with law making powers, 31% are content with the current LCO system of transferring powers to the Assembly, 15% want the whole shooting match to be abolished, and 6% do not know what they want.
I suppose the enthusiasts can say that 49% want a 'full Parliament for Wales', but its no good. It would be madness to go for a referendum on these figures. Its as dead as a dodo - before 2011 anyway. Must admit I'm losing a bit of interest in it myself. The Coalition partners have completely blown it through lack of commitment, and missed their chance. No leadership whatsoever. No inspiration. Seems to me that the better way to achieve the sort of constitutional arrangement that I want (I'd be in the 39%) is to focus on the Legislative Competence Order power transfer route, complex and unsatisfactory that it is.
And its easy to see why the Welsh people are not yet sold on the Assembly - when you're not part of the 'village' yourself. There are no inspirational people in leadershp positions - except Dafydd El, and he's sort of above the political fray. There's no Welsh 'Alex Salmond' - not that he's my cup of tea. There's not even a Welsh 'Paisley' - not my cup of tea either. Perhaps leadership and tea don't go together. Until there are individuals who learn the art of connecting with the people of Wales, the people of Wales are not going to connect with the Assembly. Anyway, its almost nine and time to change for dinner.
Most interesting story since I left on Monday morning has been the opinion poll carried out by the Institute of Welsh Politics at Aberystwyth, on behalf of the National Assembly Commission about where devolution should go from here. Its based on a survey of 2,500 people, carried out during June/July. Its results make bleak reading for those who are calling for a referendum on whether law making powers should be granted to the Assembly. It finds that 10% want an independent Wales, 39% want an Assembly with law making powers, 31% are content with the current LCO system of transferring powers to the Assembly, 15% want the whole shooting match to be abolished, and 6% do not know what they want.
I suppose the enthusiasts can say that 49% want a 'full Parliament for Wales', but its no good. It would be madness to go for a referendum on these figures. Its as dead as a dodo - before 2011 anyway. Must admit I'm losing a bit of interest in it myself. The Coalition partners have completely blown it through lack of commitment, and missed their chance. No leadership whatsoever. No inspiration. Seems to me that the better way to achieve the sort of constitutional arrangement that I want (I'd be in the 39%) is to focus on the Legislative Competence Order power transfer route, complex and unsatisfactory that it is.
And its easy to see why the Welsh people are not yet sold on the Assembly - when you're not part of the 'village' yourself. There are no inspirational people in leadershp positions - except Dafydd El, and he's sort of above the political fray. There's no Welsh 'Alex Salmond' - not that he's my cup of tea. There's not even a Welsh 'Paisley' - not my cup of tea either. Perhaps leadership and tea don't go together. Until there are individuals who learn the art of connecting with the people of Wales, the people of Wales are not going to connect with the Assembly. Anyway, its almost nine and time to change for dinner.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Off to the sun.
Not sure how much blogging there will be over the next week. I'm just heading off to Spain for a break - some sun, some golf, some reading and some Sancerre. Just my luck to have arranged to go looking for the sun on the very weekend that its came to us. Anyway, No 1 son, Edward has given me one of his spare laptops and something called a Wi-Fi cable and some instructions. I'm not at all confident that its going to work - but the intention is there. If you hear nothing for a week, you'll know that I've failed to master the technology. Enjoy the psuedo cries of 'We Love Gordon' that will be echoing in the skies above Manchester. I'm expecting to hear them from Spain.
Battle of 'Britishness'.
Declaring support for the idea of a United Kingdom is all,the rage. A few weeks back, my good friend David Davies, MP for Monmouth was all over the Welsh media as he promised to launch a 'No campaign'. Must admit that I wasn't entirely sure about what the campaign was going to say 'No' to - but I think that I got the general drift. And for the last year we've heard our beleaguered Prime Minister banging on about 'Britishness', a policy which seems to have backfired spectacularly in Scotland. In today's Wales on Sunday, its the turn of Welsh Office Minister, Huw Irranca-Davies. I really cannot see the sense in anyone who is committed to 'The Union' striving to raise this issue to the top of the agenda. It can only help the other side of the argument. I cannot think of an intervention more helpful to the cause of 'Welsh Independence' than that of Huw Irranca-Davies today.
The article by Tomos Livingstone begins by drawing an analogy with Scotland. Huw is quoted as saying
"When the idea of independence becomes mainstream, as we've seen in Scotland, its a dangerous time socially, economically and politically".
Quite. At present the idea of independence is not remotely mainstream. It probably has no more support than its had for decades. So what's the point of repeating the strategy of Gordon Brown and giving the issue as much publicity as possible. Its nuts. I've always been opposed to the idea of 'Independence'. Most Welsh people take the same view, though there has long been around 15% who disagree. Some of them are readers of this blog. While they talk about the issue amongst themselves, its entirely harmless. There is only one way that the 'idea of independence' will become mainstream. Alex Salmond has shown us that. Persuade your opponents to talk about it all the time. Government Ministers should not be going around desperately trying to raise the subject as an agenda issue - probably in order to do no more than win some coverage in the Wales on Sunday.
The article by Tomos Livingstone begins by drawing an analogy with Scotland. Huw is quoted as saying
"When the idea of independence becomes mainstream, as we've seen in Scotland, its a dangerous time socially, economically and politically".
Quite. At present the idea of independence is not remotely mainstream. It probably has no more support than its had for decades. So what's the point of repeating the strategy of Gordon Brown and giving the issue as much publicity as possible. Its nuts. I've always been opposed to the idea of 'Independence'. Most Welsh people take the same view, though there has long been around 15% who disagree. Some of them are readers of this blog. While they talk about the issue amongst themselves, its entirely harmless. There is only one way that the 'idea of independence' will become mainstream. Alex Salmond has shown us that. Persuade your opponents to talk about it all the time. Government Ministers should not be going around desperately trying to raise the subject as an agenda issue - probably in order to do no more than win some coverage in the Wales on Sunday.
Avastin
Spent yesterday afternoon in Llanidloes, leafleting and generally making myself available. I've always thought of Llanidloes as a very 'political town'. Early in the last century, the Labour Party moved into 'Llani' with manufacturing industry, and the Liberal Democrats became much associated with the town through the Hamer family, which is still very significant today. Lady Hooson is a 'Hamer', and she still lives in the town with the hugely respected Lord Hooson, who as Emlyn Hooson was Lib Dem MP for Montgomeryshire. Shirley's a bit like family to me - we've squabbled a lot over the years, but always managed to stay good friends.
I leafleted George Monbiot's house, without realising. I didn't know he lived in Llanidloes until yesterday. If he'd have been out in the garden, perhaps he's have given me a steer about the new Conservative 'Sustainability Forum' that I'm chairing. Much the biggest issue was the decision by Powys County Council to turn off two thirds of the street lights. While I applaud the Council for wanting to save money and energy, I reckon that this policy has gone much too far, and they'll have to rethink it.
Anyway, back to the subject of Avastin. I took a coffee before setting off home, as did an old friend I hadn't seen for about a year. He was taking a 'pit stop' on his way home to North Wales - with his wife. The last time we spoke his wife was very ill, suffering from Bowel Cancer, and I was very surprised to see her looking so well and buoyant. A year ago her prospects were bleak, but she has been treating herself with the new drug, Avastin. She's had to pay for it herself, because NICE have recommended that it shouldn't be available to her on the NHS. Perhaps I'm a bit too close to this issue, having suffered Bowel Cancer myself, but it does seem outrageous to me that the NHS doesn't allow the use of Avastin, the benefits of which were so obviously apparent to me as I took my tea in Llanidloes yesterday. Her good health put a smile on my face. We Bowel Cancer sufferers enjoy a bit of team spirit.
I leafleted George Monbiot's house, without realising. I didn't know he lived in Llanidloes until yesterday. If he'd have been out in the garden, perhaps he's have given me a steer about the new Conservative 'Sustainability Forum' that I'm chairing. Much the biggest issue was the decision by Powys County Council to turn off two thirds of the street lights. While I applaud the Council for wanting to save money and energy, I reckon that this policy has gone much too far, and they'll have to rethink it.
Anyway, back to the subject of Avastin. I took a coffee before setting off home, as did an old friend I hadn't seen for about a year. He was taking a 'pit stop' on his way home to North Wales - with his wife. The last time we spoke his wife was very ill, suffering from Bowel Cancer, and I was very surprised to see her looking so well and buoyant. A year ago her prospects were bleak, but she has been treating herself with the new drug, Avastin. She's had to pay for it herself, because NICE have recommended that it shouldn't be available to her on the NHS. Perhaps I'm a bit too close to this issue, having suffered Bowel Cancer myself, but it does seem outrageous to me that the NHS doesn't allow the use of Avastin, the benefits of which were so obviously apparent to me as I took my tea in Llanidloes yesterday. Her good health put a smile on my face. We Bowel Cancer sufferers enjoy a bit of team spirit.
Friday, September 19, 2008
'Sustinability' Forum.
Was down in Cardiff yesterday. Bit of a sad day for us. We were moving furniture out of our flat in Century Wharf. Tenants are moving in next week. Its a lovely flat, and Mrs D in particular has enjoyed our stay there. But its just too costly to carry it on, while we use it so little. Cardiff will be day trips from now on.
Other reason I was in the Welsh Capitol yesterday was the first meeting of the Conservative 'Welsh Sustainability Forum'. The idea is that a group of individuals with an interest in the environment put together a package of recommendation for consideration by the Conservative Party for inclusion in it's next Assembly election manifesto. All members of the 'Forum' are politically independent, except me. Conservative Spokesman on the Environment, Darren Millar AM has asked me to chair this group. Our first meeting went very well. Don't expect the Party to take on board everything we'll recommend, and yesterday we had a good debate about wind farms and the Severn Barrage. Better not post about what was said though.
Arrived home at 2.00 am. Had a 'Last supper' at the Pearl - where we ate on the day we moved in to our flat. Drove home because we didn't want to stay in a flat denuded of those things that made in 'homely'. It would have been ironic if the accident in Croatia had been worse. In fact, if it had been fatal, I would have been immediately returned to the National Assembly as 'list' replacement AM for Mid and West Wales! I should add that I am very pleased indeed that Nick was not badly hurt.
Other reason I was in the Welsh Capitol yesterday was the first meeting of the Conservative 'Welsh Sustainability Forum'. The idea is that a group of individuals with an interest in the environment put together a package of recommendation for consideration by the Conservative Party for inclusion in it's next Assembly election manifesto. All members of the 'Forum' are politically independent, except me. Conservative Spokesman on the Environment, Darren Millar AM has asked me to chair this group. Our first meeting went very well. Don't expect the Party to take on board everything we'll recommend, and yesterday we had a good debate about wind farms and the Severn Barrage. Better not post about what was said though.
Arrived home at 2.00 am. Had a 'Last supper' at the Pearl - where we ate on the day we moved in to our flat. Drove home because we didn't want to stay in a flat denuded of those things that made in 'homely'. It would have been ironic if the accident in Croatia had been worse. In fact, if it had been fatal, I would have been immediately returned to the National Assembly as 'list' replacement AM for Mid and West Wales! I should add that I am very pleased indeed that Nick was not badly hurt.
When is it a con?
I've only ever used an autocue once, and that was to record a Party Political Broadcast, when I was told that it was vital, in order to ensure that the segments of speech matched exactly the clips of film. Even then I so disliked it that I discarded it and managed by memorising instead. I just don't like an autocue. I don't like using them, and I think they are a deception on the audience. If I'm speaking from notes, I prefer to hold up my speech so that everyone can see exactly what I'm doing.
This week Nick Clegg was widely reported as making his conference speech without notes. People have told me how impressed they were by this. Now I'm not saying that speaking with notes is any more or less laudable than 'going commando', but I'm not so sure about a speaker who likes to give the impression that he's freewheeling, when in fact he's reading it. It just doesn't seem right to me. I wonder how many speakers at the Labour and Conservative conferences will resort to the same tactic over the next two weeks.
This week Nick Clegg was widely reported as making his conference speech without notes. People have told me how impressed they were by this. Now I'm not saying that speaking with notes is any more or less laudable than 'going commando', but I'm not so sure about a speaker who likes to give the impression that he's freewheeling, when in fact he's reading it. It just doesn't seem right to me. I wonder how many speakers at the Labour and Conservative conferences will resort to the same tactic over the next two weeks.
Improving Forecast in Montgomeryshire.
I recall Iain Dale discussing prospects for the next General Election with some London based psephologist last year. When Iain suggested that Montgomeryshire could be an interesting contest, the London 'voice' dismissed the idea witheringly. Well, I do need a 11.4% swing to take the seat from the Lib Dems, the computer informs that Montgomeryshire is around 15th on our 'target seat' list in Wales, and the current MP is just about the best known Lib Dem MP in the UK. So I shall forgive him his 'detached' ignorance.
Denis Balsom is an entirely different kettle of fish. He actually knows something about Wales - and knows where Montgomeryshire is. This helps. In fact Denis is the best psephologist that we have in Wales. He was just about the only person who predicted that I would lose my position on the National Assembly last year. So let's see what he predicts for the next General Election in a report commissioned by the Institute of Welsh Affairs, covered in yesterday's Western Mail. It looks as if my personal weather outlook is rather promising.
What's interesting is that Denis is predicting that Montgomeryshire will fall to the Conservatives, even if there is no meltdown of the Labour vote. In this 'no-meltdown' scenario, he sees the Conservatives as winning perhaps 9 seats in Wales - including Montgomeryshire. In a 'meltdown' situation, Denis thinks that the Conservatives could win a lot more. Of course this doesn't mean that I should start looking for somewhere in London to lay down my tired head after each day's toil - but it certainly does put a spring in the step of all those supporters who are part of our local 'team'.
Denis Balsom is an entirely different kettle of fish. He actually knows something about Wales - and knows where Montgomeryshire is. This helps. In fact Denis is the best psephologist that we have in Wales. He was just about the only person who predicted that I would lose my position on the National Assembly last year. So let's see what he predicts for the next General Election in a report commissioned by the Institute of Welsh Affairs, covered in yesterday's Western Mail. It looks as if my personal weather outlook is rather promising.
What's interesting is that Denis is predicting that Montgomeryshire will fall to the Conservatives, even if there is no meltdown of the Labour vote. In this 'no-meltdown' scenario, he sees the Conservatives as winning perhaps 9 seats in Wales - including Montgomeryshire. In a 'meltdown' situation, Denis thinks that the Conservatives could win a lot more. Of course this doesn't mean that I should start looking for somewhere in London to lay down my tired head after each day's toil - but it certainly does put a spring in the step of all those supporters who are part of our local 'team'.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Nick Clegg - Bad Week
I was listening to a report on 5 Live today about this Middle East cleric who had offended sharia law by taking 86 wives and fathering almost 200 children. It seems that he was only allowed 4 wives. I wonder if he had any idea how much Child Benefit he would have been entitled to if he lived in the UK. Which brings me to Mr Nick Clegg.
Seems to me that the Leader of the Liberal Democrats has had a embarrassingly dismal week. Not only has he totally confused the nation about what the Liberal Democrats stand for, but he's opened himself up to even greater ridicule than that which followed his informing the nation via GQ Magazine of the number of notches he had on his bedpost.
Any figure between £80 and £100 would have been acceptable. We don't expect a party leader, chosen for his telegenic appearance to know precisely that the state pension is £90.70. But "30 quid". Its clear that Nick Clegg has not the slightest idea how the elderly people of Britain live. Out of touch or what! And there's worse.
Oh how they laughed at George W Bush when some clever dick journalist 'exposed' his inability to name the capitol of Outer Mongolia (or wherever). "Dudya's a thicko. Not fit to be a leader" they said. And the same leftie elite fell over themselves to mock Sarah Palin as a God-fearing, gun-toting, anti-abortion ex beauty queen. "How can such a woman be placed a heartbeat away from the nuclear button?" they ask incredulously. Well, that goes down rather well in the USA. And then up steps Nick Clegg to make Sarah look a pillar of suitability. In today's Conference speech he talked about other names he'd never heard of - Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers. Can you believe it - and he thought the state pension was "30 quid". And he wants to be our Prime Minister!
Now where did this figure of 30 come from. Perhaps he says 30 whenever he's asked an unexpected question.
What's the state pension Nick?......................£30 quid.
How many women have you had sex with Nick/..........30
How much is a dozen eggs Nick?.......................30p
How many breasts has an Amazon Nick?.................30 (I once knew someone who answered this question with 6)
How many Lib Dems after the next election Nick? 30 (You should be so lucky)
Anyway, he's told the Liberal Democrats that they are on the way to Government - just as David Steel did. "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government". Better take a look at tomorrow's opinion poll.
Seems to me that the Leader of the Liberal Democrats has had a embarrassingly dismal week. Not only has he totally confused the nation about what the Liberal Democrats stand for, but he's opened himself up to even greater ridicule than that which followed his informing the nation via GQ Magazine of the number of notches he had on his bedpost.
Any figure between £80 and £100 would have been acceptable. We don't expect a party leader, chosen for his telegenic appearance to know precisely that the state pension is £90.70. But "30 quid". Its clear that Nick Clegg has not the slightest idea how the elderly people of Britain live. Out of touch or what! And there's worse.
Oh how they laughed at George W Bush when some clever dick journalist 'exposed' his inability to name the capitol of Outer Mongolia (or wherever). "Dudya's a thicko. Not fit to be a leader" they said. And the same leftie elite fell over themselves to mock Sarah Palin as a God-fearing, gun-toting, anti-abortion ex beauty queen. "How can such a woman be placed a heartbeat away from the nuclear button?" they ask incredulously. Well, that goes down rather well in the USA. And then up steps Nick Clegg to make Sarah look a pillar of suitability. In today's Conference speech he talked about other names he'd never heard of - Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers. Can you believe it - and he thought the state pension was "30 quid". And he wants to be our Prime Minister!
Now where did this figure of 30 come from. Perhaps he says 30 whenever he's asked an unexpected question.
What's the state pension Nick?......................£30 quid.
How many women have you had sex with Nick/..........30
How much is a dozen eggs Nick?.......................30p
How many breasts has an Amazon Nick?.................30 (I once knew someone who answered this question with 6)
How many Lib Dems after the next election Nick? 30 (You should be so lucky)
Anyway, he's told the Liberal Democrats that they are on the way to Government - just as David Steel did. "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government". Better take a look at tomorrow's opinion poll.
Election next Feb/March?
Tomorrow, I'll be telephoning my constituency chairman to inform him of my opinion that we should prepare for a General Election in Feb/March. I really do think that Gordon Brown will not survive to the end of the year. There will be a final effort to rally the Labour Party behind the Prime Minister at Labour's Conference next week - and his big speech will be hailed a success. But it will make no difference.
Its not the dozen or so MPs who have asked him to go. And it would not matter if this figure rose to 30. Its not that one Minister has resigned. And it would make no difference if that figure rose to 3/4. But Cabinet members. That's different - especially if its anyone who's spoken of as a possible replacement. Step forward James Parnell, who has tonight made supportive comments about the rebels (according to Newsnight). This is incendiary (assuming its true). Hutton didn't matter. But other Cabinet members who fancy the top job cannot allow Parnell to steal a march on them.
And if the Prime Minister is forced out, what will the new man or woman do. Well lets think about it. What's the best way to make sure Gordon Brown gets the blame for any defeat. If a defeat comes in Feb/March, the blame will land on Gordon Brown's doorstep, and the new leader gets to fight another day. If its held in June 2010, no-one will remember Gordon Brown, an dthe new leader will cop the blame. And a decision to go in Feb/March would take control of the agenda, and score high marks for boldness. I'm not saying its probable yet, but its a lot more probable tonight than it was this morning, and it's the way the big stone is rolling. I think quite a few association chairs will be having telephone calls tomorrow.
Its not the dozen or so MPs who have asked him to go. And it would not matter if this figure rose to 30. Its not that one Minister has resigned. And it would make no difference if that figure rose to 3/4. But Cabinet members. That's different - especially if its anyone who's spoken of as a possible replacement. Step forward James Parnell, who has tonight made supportive comments about the rebels (according to Newsnight). This is incendiary (assuming its true). Hutton didn't matter. But other Cabinet members who fancy the top job cannot allow Parnell to steal a march on them.
And if the Prime Minister is forced out, what will the new man or woman do. Well lets think about it. What's the best way to make sure Gordon Brown gets the blame for any defeat. If a defeat comes in Feb/March, the blame will land on Gordon Brown's doorstep, and the new leader gets to fight another day. If its held in June 2010, no-one will remember Gordon Brown, an dthe new leader will cop the blame. And a decision to go in Feb/March would take control of the agenda, and score high marks for boldness. I'm not saying its probable yet, but its a lot more probable tonight than it was this morning, and it's the way the big stone is rolling. I think quite a few association chairs will be having telephone calls tomorrow.
Train talk..
Had a chat with Edna Mopbucket on the 'dog and bone' tonight. I'm down in the National Assembly tomorrow afternoon, and rang to offer her a coffee in Starbuck's in the Bay. She's doing a bit of cleaning in Bermondsey at the moment and has taken to using 'Cockney' slang. Anyway, I knew she had a bit of gossip as soon as she spoke. Like a lot of ladies, she wanted to share it with me, but wanted it wheedled out of her. After a bit of coaxing she did.
Seems she was on the train to Paddington from Cardiff, just minding her own business, when the silver haired, suntanned smoothie in the next seat took a phone call on his mobile. "Peter Hain here" she heard, and her ears pricked. Now Edna's never liked 'Hain' as she calls him, ever since he threw drawing pins all over the rugby pitches when Gareth and Barry were in South Africa on a Lions tour, and in their pomp. She loved Gareth, and despises anyone who says a bad word about him, let alone tries to stick pins in his knees.
Edna tells me that the conversation became quite animated, and Peter made the mistake of thinking the lady in the next seat nonchalantly reading Women's Own wasn't listening. But she was. And she heard him say as clear as day "We're stuffed. We're absolutely stuffed" And Edna tells me she was as certain as can be that he was talking about the Labour Party. On this occasion he was spot on in his judgement.
Seems she was on the train to Paddington from Cardiff, just minding her own business, when the silver haired, suntanned smoothie in the next seat took a phone call on his mobile. "Peter Hain here" she heard, and her ears pricked. Now Edna's never liked 'Hain' as she calls him, ever since he threw drawing pins all over the rugby pitches when Gareth and Barry were in South Africa on a Lions tour, and in their pomp. She loved Gareth, and despises anyone who says a bad word about him, let alone tries to stick pins in his knees.
Edna tells me that the conversation became quite animated, and Peter made the mistake of thinking the lady in the next seat nonchalantly reading Women's Own wasn't listening. But she was. And she heard him say as clear as day "We're stuffed. We're absolutely stuffed" And Edna tells me she was as certain as can be that he was talking about the Labour Party. On this occasion he was spot on in his judgement.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
But did she mean it.
Some media coverage in Wales today has been speculating that Ms Kirsty Williams (who looks odds on to walk unchallenged into the leadership of the Liberal Democrats in Wales) would be content to consider a coalition with the Conservatives in the National Assembly. Now this is very interesting. Its widely thought that she was a prime mover behind the fateful decision by the Lib Dem Executive Committee Meeting to scupper the proposed coalition between Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, immediately after the last Assembly election. It also seemed to me that Ms Williams was deeply opposed to any any sort of working arrangement with us during my 8 years in the National Assembly. It looks a significant change of position.
As regular readers of this blog will know, I've long advocated serious consideration of a working agreement between the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru at Assembly level - even though I accept that it may well become increasingly difficult and unlikely as more powers are transferred to the Assembly through Legislative Competence Orders. The only alternative is government led by Labour for the foreseeable future - not a joyous prospect. Last May, the numbers required that the Liberal Democrats signed up to the deal as well. Next time, this may well not be the case. So Ms Williams' changed position is strategically sensible from a partisan point of view, as well as being an extremely welcome development to all of us who want to see Labour experience the discomfort of the opposition benches in the Assembly.
As regular readers of this blog will know, I've long advocated serious consideration of a working agreement between the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru at Assembly level - even though I accept that it may well become increasingly difficult and unlikely as more powers are transferred to the Assembly through Legislative Competence Orders. The only alternative is government led by Labour for the foreseeable future - not a joyous prospect. Last May, the numbers required that the Liberal Democrats signed up to the deal as well. Next time, this may well not be the case. So Ms Williams' changed position is strategically sensible from a partisan point of view, as well as being an extremely welcome development to all of us who want to see Labour experience the discomfort of the opposition benches in the Assembly.
The Fundamental Truth about Business.
A few months ago I ventured into the City of London, a place almost as unfamiliar to me as a hypermarket. But there was I, trained as a hill sheep farmer, discussing 'Corporate Greed' with a man of very different background, but of similar outlook. We were instinctive 'capitalists' concerned about the 'greed' which seemed to becoming commonplace within our financial institutions. The discussion had been 'triggered' by reports of the first billion pounds bonus, and a speech by Peter Hain, a then Government Minister condemning the unacceptability of such massive rewards. OK, so he was contesting Labour's Deputy Leadership at the time. My friend and I contemplated the resentment that might be felt by those involved in under pressure manufacturing, compared with the massive sums being paid in bonuses to those employed in financial services. We felt that Peter Hain may have a point. Neither of us had any inkling that a day like yesterday was just around the corner. And there's plenty more to come.
Now, there are some fundamentals about capitalism, to which Jeff Randall refers in his blunt speaking way. Truth is that there is no real difference between running an international bank and a sweetshop, a toyshop or a hill sheep farm - except for the collateral damage that might be caused when they go bust. A good hill sheep farm business, not over borrowed, competent farmer, good record of profit and efficiency will survive a year like 2007, when Blue Tongue Disease played such havoc with profits. An over borrowed hill sheep farm, with a farmer taking too much out of the business, and with no allowance being made for future financial squalls, will sink. Its the same with financial institutions - when it comes to fundamentals. And when the tornado arrives its too late to worry about the foundations, if all the money has gone into flashy redecoration. Even with the biggest financial institutions in the world, if the managers forget the fundamentals, they go bust. That's how capitalism works. It looks as if there are going to be an awful lot of casualties.
Its the same with Government. Gordon Brown is the political equivalent of Lehman Brothers. For years he rode the tiger, informing the world that he had ended the concept of 'boom and bust' and spending taxpayer's money with little regard for value. But the tiger fell sick, and the Prime Minister has been caught out. The Scottish Emperor has no clothes. He may well go the way of Lehman Brothers - and for the same reason.
Now, there are some fundamentals about capitalism, to which Jeff Randall refers in his blunt speaking way. Truth is that there is no real difference between running an international bank and a sweetshop, a toyshop or a hill sheep farm - except for the collateral damage that might be caused when they go bust. A good hill sheep farm business, not over borrowed, competent farmer, good record of profit and efficiency will survive a year like 2007, when Blue Tongue Disease played such havoc with profits. An over borrowed hill sheep farm, with a farmer taking too much out of the business, and with no allowance being made for future financial squalls, will sink. Its the same with financial institutions - when it comes to fundamentals. And when the tornado arrives its too late to worry about the foundations, if all the money has gone into flashy redecoration. Even with the biggest financial institutions in the world, if the managers forget the fundamentals, they go bust. That's how capitalism works. It looks as if there are going to be an awful lot of casualties.
Its the same with Government. Gordon Brown is the political equivalent of Lehman Brothers. For years he rode the tiger, informing the world that he had ended the concept of 'boom and bust' and spending taxpayer's money with little regard for value. But the tiger fell sick, and the Prime Minister has been caught out. The Scottish Emperor has no clothes. He may well go the way of Lehman Brothers - and for the same reason.
Monday, September 15, 2008
My Way.
This is an indulgent personal post - stimulated by Janice Hooper and an anonymous comment on another post over the last day or two. Their general entirely reasonable point has been made by several others - usually supporters.
At about the age of 12, I developed a forceful temperament. Not overly aggressive, but 'Never a step backwards' became a personal style. Around the rugby fields of the Midlands I became known as the 'Paul Ringer of Mid Wales'. Rugby fans will know what that means. Over the years, I worked hard to drive out this 'dark side' - and been so successful that Janice and others who comment on my blog occasionally accuse me of being politically wimpish. Since this appearance of reason and reasonableness is the result of a conscious decision, I will try to offer an explanation.
I suppose it started when I first ventured forth from our hill sheep farm in search of a breeding partner. Experience quickly informed that compromise was a precursor to success. And then children, where an unnatural gentleness was essential. The final nail in the coffin of the belief in winning argument by force was hammered in when I reached the age of 32. My father died, leaving me to run the family business, and I was elected to Montgomeryshire District Council in the same month. Suddenly what mattered were 'outcomes', both political and financial. Its been the same ever since.
Some 15 months ago, the Montgomeryshire Conservative Association adopted me as their candidate for the next General Election. Although I needed a 11.4% swing to win, I decided that there was a strategy that might deliver an unlikely victory - instill in the thoughts of the people of Montgomeryshire that we are, first and foremost, committed to public service in their interests. The media give huge unbalanced publicity to my Liberal Democrat opponent, so we have to go direct to the people - and focus rigidly on our commitment to public service. That's what we do. Generally, I ignore the activities of the Montgomeryshire MP. He does it his way. So far, our strategy has gone rather well. Last May we took 6 of the Montgomeryshire seats on Powys County Council. (We had never won a single election before). Many people who have never voted Conservative before are telling us that they are now with us. I genuinely believe that I'm now in with a chance of winning. Often I'm told that the Liberal Democrats will 'play dirty' using a 'rumour network' - suggesting that I should do the same. Sometimes we might feel like that, but why change a winning strategy.
Occasionally, I will attack the Liberal Democrats, and sometimes criticise the current MP. But I believe the strategy we have adopted is that most likely to deliver - and I want to win.
At about the age of 12, I developed a forceful temperament. Not overly aggressive, but 'Never a step backwards' became a personal style. Around the rugby fields of the Midlands I became known as the 'Paul Ringer of Mid Wales'. Rugby fans will know what that means. Over the years, I worked hard to drive out this 'dark side' - and been so successful that Janice and others who comment on my blog occasionally accuse me of being politically wimpish. Since this appearance of reason and reasonableness is the result of a conscious decision, I will try to offer an explanation.
I suppose it started when I first ventured forth from our hill sheep farm in search of a breeding partner. Experience quickly informed that compromise was a precursor to success. And then children, where an unnatural gentleness was essential. The final nail in the coffin of the belief in winning argument by force was hammered in when I reached the age of 32. My father died, leaving me to run the family business, and I was elected to Montgomeryshire District Council in the same month. Suddenly what mattered were 'outcomes', both political and financial. Its been the same ever since.
Some 15 months ago, the Montgomeryshire Conservative Association adopted me as their candidate for the next General Election. Although I needed a 11.4% swing to win, I decided that there was a strategy that might deliver an unlikely victory - instill in the thoughts of the people of Montgomeryshire that we are, first and foremost, committed to public service in their interests. The media give huge unbalanced publicity to my Liberal Democrat opponent, so we have to go direct to the people - and focus rigidly on our commitment to public service. That's what we do. Generally, I ignore the activities of the Montgomeryshire MP. He does it his way. So far, our strategy has gone rather well. Last May we took 6 of the Montgomeryshire seats on Powys County Council. (We had never won a single election before). Many people who have never voted Conservative before are telling us that they are now with us. I genuinely believe that I'm now in with a chance of winning. Often I'm told that the Liberal Democrats will 'play dirty' using a 'rumour network' - suggesting that I should do the same. Sometimes we might feel like that, but why change a winning strategy.
Occasionally, I will attack the Liberal Democrats, and sometimes criticise the current MP. But I believe the strategy we have adopted is that most likely to deliver - and I want to win.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Principles or None.
For almost my entire life, Montgomeryshire has been represented by a Liberal/Liberal Democrat. Everyone admired Clement Davies (MP when I was too young to care). I hugely admired Emlyn Hooson personally, and still do today. I look on him as a good friend. And Alex Carlile was my next door neighbour, and acknowledged as an outstandingly able MP. And I know Lembit Opik. So both as a resident of Montgomeryshire, and as a Parliamentary Candidate who hopes to represent the grand old county in Westminster after the next General Election, it follows that I take an interest in what the Lib Dems are saying.
Well, its very difficult to be sure. It seems to change very frequently. In general I've always thought of them as being in favour of higher public spending - which translates into higher taxation. The Lib Dems have been fighting elections on a policy of more public spending for as long as I can remember. And then there's the matter of European integration. The one political party in the UK that was fully signed up to the European ideal is the Lib Dems. And then there's a few secondary issues like proportional representation and a Local income Tax. Can't think of much else, if we discount the waffle. So what the h*** is going on at their Bournemouth Conference.
Former leader, Charles Kennedy was on the Politics Show today. "Taxation is too high" he said - and added that he wants to see "Smaller Government" and people having "More disposable income". This is just for starters. Nick Clegg's spin doctors have been badgering every TV studio to allow him in to tell us that he wants to cut the overall tax burden - not just a switch from the 'poor' to the 'rich'. 4p off income tax and at least £20 billion off public spending. And Vince Cable has been going round rubbishing the idea of the UK joining the Euro. That's right. The Lib Dems playing the Eurosceptic card! Its b***** amazing. Even Charles Kennedy said today that the time for joining the Euro is not now - and I thought he was the most Europhile politician in the UK. And I understand that the Lib Dem's in the Scottish Parliament are opposing the SNP's proposal to introduce a Local Income Tax. What next? Perhaps they'll be in favour of 'first-past-the-post' as a system of election tomorrow.
Seems to me that its not a question of whether these are sensible policy changes. Its more a question of whether the Liberal Democrats actually believe in anything at all, or ever did.
Well, its very difficult to be sure. It seems to change very frequently. In general I've always thought of them as being in favour of higher public spending - which translates into higher taxation. The Lib Dems have been fighting elections on a policy of more public spending for as long as I can remember. And then there's the matter of European integration. The one political party in the UK that was fully signed up to the European ideal is the Lib Dems. And then there's a few secondary issues like proportional representation and a Local income Tax. Can't think of much else, if we discount the waffle. So what the h*** is going on at their Bournemouth Conference.
Former leader, Charles Kennedy was on the Politics Show today. "Taxation is too high" he said - and added that he wants to see "Smaller Government" and people having "More disposable income". This is just for starters. Nick Clegg's spin doctors have been badgering every TV studio to allow him in to tell us that he wants to cut the overall tax burden - not just a switch from the 'poor' to the 'rich'. 4p off income tax and at least £20 billion off public spending. And Vince Cable has been going round rubbishing the idea of the UK joining the Euro. That's right. The Lib Dems playing the Eurosceptic card! Its b***** amazing. Even Charles Kennedy said today that the time for joining the Euro is not now - and I thought he was the most Europhile politician in the UK. And I understand that the Lib Dem's in the Scottish Parliament are opposing the SNP's proposal to introduce a Local Income Tax. What next? Perhaps they'll be in favour of 'first-past-the-post' as a system of election tomorrow.
Seems to me that its not a question of whether these are sensible policy changes. Its more a question of whether the Liberal Democrats actually believe in anything at all, or ever did.
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