As regular visitors to my blog will know, I will be voting Leave on June 23rd. They will also know that I would prefer not to have been asked. Not yet. I've always thought that the undemocratic bureaucracy that is the EU is doomed to collapse eventually, but I would have preferred any referendum about British withdrawal to be held when a Leave vote was near certain to win.
I write this as news reaches us that an opinion poll tonight puts Leave 10pts ahead. I simply do not believe it. When it was announced that we would have a referendum in 2016, I thought the Remain side would win by 5-10% - and I've not changed my mind. As we close in on the 23rd June, voters will move to what they believe to be the 'status quo' - the less risky option. It may be disappointing to me, but that's how I think it will pan out.
But the Remain side is doing it's best to lose. A few weeks/months ago, before I declared my intention to vote Leave, I was quite relaxed about it. Could see good reasons to Remain and good reasons to Leave. Deciding factor for me was a longstanding belief (41yrs) that I do not want to see Britain subsumed into an undemocratic bureaucracy. I simply did not have that feeling of 'We must win' in my heart. So many good friends and admired political colleagues were for Remain. In particular, David Cameron, who I greatly admire. It did not seem a big deal.
But the tone of the debate has changed things. Juncker calling us quitters really fired me up. Who was he to call us quitters. Telling me I was happy to trash the economy, put our security on the line, even unleash world-wide conflict made me cross too. I don't believe a word of it. And telling me that the EU would buy Welsh Lamb. Never heard such 'cobblers' in my life. It's all come over as threatening me. I have never responded well to threats. My stubborn contrary streak has been ignited. I've supported Leave since 1975 - in a fairly relaxed sort of way. Now I really want to Leave.
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